Brent gained +4.5% today, rising from $84.23 to an intraday high of $88.02.
Three institutions issued three completely different forecasts today at the same time:
Goldman Sachs cut its Q4 Brent target price from $90 to $80—because it expects exports from the Hormuz region to recover to near pre-war levels by the end of July; meanwhile, increased OPEC+ capacity combined with slowing demand will pull prices lower.
The IEA believes global oil demand will shrink by about 1.1 million barrels per day in 2026, supporting Goldman’s bearish view.
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink offers two extreme scenarios: if a lasting peace is reached, oil prices could crash to $40; if tensions continue to escalate, they could break above $150.
All three forecasts have data to back them up, but they point to three different worlds.
This is the most real picture of the oil market today: no one knows whether $88 is the top or just a mid-point.
As for BTC: Brent +4.5% → inflation expectations jump → the Fed rate-cut window moves further out → pressure on non-interest-bearing assets. BTC today has traded in a $63,000–$65,000 range, and there has been no panic selling despite the big oil rally, so the support structure has not been broken.
The FOMC meeting on July 29 is the most important macro event of the year. Whether oil prices can cool down before then will determine the tone of this meeting.
$BTC
$CL
#布伦特原油涨4.6%
Three institutions issued three completely different forecasts today at the same time:
Goldman Sachs cut its Q4 Brent target price from $90 to $80—because it expects exports from the Hormuz region to recover to near pre-war levels by the end of July; meanwhile, increased OPEC+ capacity combined with slowing demand will pull prices lower.
The IEA believes global oil demand will shrink by about 1.1 million barrels per day in 2026, supporting Goldman’s bearish view.
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink offers two extreme scenarios: if a lasting peace is reached, oil prices could crash to $40; if tensions continue to escalate, they could break above $150.
All three forecasts have data to back them up, but they point to three different worlds.
This is the most real picture of the oil market today: no one knows whether $88 is the top or just a mid-point.
As for BTC: Brent +4.5% → inflation expectations jump → the Fed rate-cut window moves further out → pressure on non-interest-bearing assets. BTC today has traded in a $63,000–$65,000 range, and there has been no panic selling despite the big oil rally, so the support structure has not been broken.
The FOMC meeting on July 29 is the most important macro event of the year. Whether oil prices can cool down before then will determine the tone of this meeting.
$BTC
$CL
#布伦特原油涨4.6%
