April 13: I held SNDK down—what a roaring, eventful storage bull market. It has officially begun from that point onward.
On May 21, I posted an analysis of the storage sector’s next core hotspot: HBM. It clearly stated that MU is the key leader in this sub-sector. After the short-term pullback ends, the next wave of gains for MU would far exceed those of traditional storage stocks, and MU’s upside could reach 90%+.
Starting June 25, I repeatedly warned that the storage sector was getting overheated—people should reduce positions and clear out rather than chase longs.
Up to now, as the storage rally has unfolded, all moves have basically kept in sync with the rhythm of the market. So how should we look at what comes next?
Taking SanDisk as an example: as shown in the chart, the storage sector has two possible outlooks:
Blue: Use the June 22 high as a periodic top. The correction for the entire leg of the rise from 28.36 to 2385 has already begun. If we confirm that this path will run, then this correction will be extremely prolonged—so long that most retail investors trapped near the highs will feel hopeless.
Red: 2385 to 1485 is the pullback from the rally of 517 to 2385. After that, there should still be another upswing of roughly the same magnitude as the move from 517 to 2385.
If we want the market to follow the red route, we must see SanDisk break above and hold over 2025 this month; otherwise, the probability of the blue route is much higher than the red.
It’s especially important to note that even if the market follows the red path and completes the final upswing, a periodic pullback will most likely begin afterward. That pullback would be at the monthly-line level.
I’m not bearish on SanDisk, and I’m not bearish on storage. Rather, from a risk-reward (odds) perspective, I believe this sector is no longer suitable for ordinary investors to continue participating.
A gentleman does not stand under a dangerous wall. The most comfortable, most certain, and highest-odds stage of this storage cycle has already passed. Smart friends are already positioning themselves for the next hotspot instead of taking the risk to grab the last bite.
No one understands storage better than I do—maybe that sounds a bit arrogant. But just like how I can precisely short silver at its absolute peak at 121, the market will ultimately remember the judgments that were truly validated. #闪迪 $MU
On May 21, I posted an analysis of the storage sector’s next core hotspot: HBM. It clearly stated that MU is the key leader in this sub-sector. After the short-term pullback ends, the next wave of gains for MU would far exceed those of traditional storage stocks, and MU’s upside could reach 90%+.
Starting June 25, I repeatedly warned that the storage sector was getting overheated—people should reduce positions and clear out rather than chase longs.
Up to now, as the storage rally has unfolded, all moves have basically kept in sync with the rhythm of the market. So how should we look at what comes next?
Taking SanDisk as an example: as shown in the chart, the storage sector has two possible outlooks:
Blue: Use the June 22 high as a periodic top. The correction for the entire leg of the rise from 28.36 to 2385 has already begun. If we confirm that this path will run, then this correction will be extremely prolonged—so long that most retail investors trapped near the highs will feel hopeless.
Red: 2385 to 1485 is the pullback from the rally of 517 to 2385. After that, there should still be another upswing of roughly the same magnitude as the move from 517 to 2385.
If we want the market to follow the red route, we must see SanDisk break above and hold over 2025 this month; otherwise, the probability of the blue route is much higher than the red.
It’s especially important to note that even if the market follows the red path and completes the final upswing, a periodic pullback will most likely begin afterward. That pullback would be at the monthly-line level.
I’m not bearish on SanDisk, and I’m not bearish on storage. Rather, from a risk-reward (odds) perspective, I believe this sector is no longer suitable for ordinary investors to continue participating.
A gentleman does not stand under a dangerous wall. The most comfortable, most certain, and highest-odds stage of this storage cycle has already passed. Smart friends are already positioning themselves for the next hotspot instead of taking the risk to grab the last bite.
No one understands storage better than I do—maybe that sounds a bit arrogant. But just like how I can precisely short silver at its absolute peak at 121, the market will ultimately remember the judgments that were truly validated. #闪迪 $MU