July 13, $BTC Comprehensive Market Analysis
🤯News:
On July 12, the news flow was relatively calm, and the market is in a state of “watch-and-wait + cautious recovery.” The main focus is on the upcoming macro data:
Key catalyst: July 14 (tomorrow) — U.S. June CPI data (evening Beijing time). This is the biggest variable for July.
Market expectations: Overall CPI may show a negative month-over-month change due to a pullback in gasoline prices, but core CPI still needs close attention.
If CPI is softer: strengthen expectations for rate cuts, bullish for risk assets; BTC is likely to break above $65,000+
If CPI is hotter: strengthen the “higher rates for longer” narrative, suppress BTC; it could pull back to $62,000 and even test $60,000 support.
Other background: The U.S. crypto legislation previously made positive progress; infrastructure bullish factors such as Circle’s new trust bank approval are still unfolding, but there were no major new events yesterday. Discussions on whether July 1’s low was the cycle bottom continue.
🤯Funds:
A positive turn in liquidity has emerged, which is an important factor supporting the current price.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs: After a streak of net outflows from late June to early July, they have recently flipped to net inflows.
July 11: +$90.40M (+1.43K BTC) net inflow
On July 7 and July 10, there were also net positive inflows (led by IBIT).
Cumulative historical net inflows still reach +$51.72B, with total assets around $78B.
🤯Technical Analysis:
Over the past two weekend days, price has been oscillating between 63,500 and 64,500. In the same way, we’ve been telling everyone that this bullish move needs to show strength—so the key thing to watch is whether it can hold above 64,500.
Currently, whether you look at the candlesticks or the indicators on the sub-chart, the daily timeframe has already reached short-term resistance and is about to make a directional choice.
These two days have seen both long and short explosions back and forth. But looking at the 1-hour and 4-hour levels, there is a need for a pullback. On the 4-hour timeframe, a top divergence pattern has formed. On the 1-hour timeframe, it is about to break below the zero axis, which suggests there is room for a short-term retracement at this level. Below, support is expected to hover around 62,700–61,000.
So to summarize: for the day, there may be a short-term pullback, but what you should focus on is whether the daily timeframe can break above the zero axis to trigger a stronger push from the bulls. To see the bulls strengthen, watch whether the 64,500 level can hold.
$BTC #比特币计划eCash硬分叉
🤯News:
On July 12, the news flow was relatively calm, and the market is in a state of “watch-and-wait + cautious recovery.” The main focus is on the upcoming macro data:
Key catalyst: July 14 (tomorrow) — U.S. June CPI data (evening Beijing time). This is the biggest variable for July.
Market expectations: Overall CPI may show a negative month-over-month change due to a pullback in gasoline prices, but core CPI still needs close attention.
If CPI is softer: strengthen expectations for rate cuts, bullish for risk assets; BTC is likely to break above $65,000+
If CPI is hotter: strengthen the “higher rates for longer” narrative, suppress BTC; it could pull back to $62,000 and even test $60,000 support.
Other background: The U.S. crypto legislation previously made positive progress; infrastructure bullish factors such as Circle’s new trust bank approval are still unfolding, but there were no major new events yesterday. Discussions on whether July 1’s low was the cycle bottom continue.
🤯Funds:
A positive turn in liquidity has emerged, which is an important factor supporting the current price.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs: After a streak of net outflows from late June to early July, they have recently flipped to net inflows.
July 11: +$90.40M (+1.43K BTC) net inflow
On July 7 and July 10, there were also net positive inflows (led by IBIT).
Cumulative historical net inflows still reach +$51.72B, with total assets around $78B.
🤯Technical Analysis:
Over the past two weekend days, price has been oscillating between 63,500 and 64,500. In the same way, we’ve been telling everyone that this bullish move needs to show strength—so the key thing to watch is whether it can hold above 64,500.
Currently, whether you look at the candlesticks or the indicators on the sub-chart, the daily timeframe has already reached short-term resistance and is about to make a directional choice.
These two days have seen both long and short explosions back and forth. But looking at the 1-hour and 4-hour levels, there is a need for a pullback. On the 4-hour timeframe, a top divergence pattern has formed. On the 1-hour timeframe, it is about to break below the zero axis, which suggests there is room for a short-term retracement at this level. Below, support is expected to hover around 62,700–61,000.
So to summarize: for the day, there may be a short-term pullback, but what you should focus on is whether the daily timeframe can break above the zero axis to trigger a stronger push from the bulls. To see the bulls strengthen, watch whether the 64,500 level can hold.
$BTC #比特币计划eCash硬分叉