BTC has indeed been rising these past two days—there’s no need to avoid that.
But I think this rebound can’t be viewed only within the crypto bubble. Behind it, there are actually two macro lines moving at the same time.
The first is that after US employment data cooled, the market no longer has to keep trading as if the Fed will be more hawkish, higher for longer, and even reopen discussions about further rate hikes.
This doesn’t mean a rate cut has been confirmed, and it doesn’t mean risk assets have directly entered a loose-cycle bull market. It only means that the tightest macro pressure has been loosened a bit—for now.
The second is that AI is still propping up the US growth narrative.
Current US stock market valuations, tech sector capital expenditures, and the imagination surrounding the dollar’s credit are all deeply tied to AI.
The market is willing to give the US high valuations not only because of current earnings, but because it still believes AI could drive the next round of productivity gains.
So an AI bubble can’t be treated as just a regular bubble. It’s also the market’s bet on whether the US can still produce new assets, new productivity, and new credit stories.
That’s also why BTC’s rebound these two days has a bit of a macro foundation:
employment cooling, which lowers the tail risk of the Fed becoming hawkish again.
The AI narrative remains intact, so the market doesn’t immediately price in a collapse in US growth.
With both working together, risk assets naturally see a repair window first.
But a window isn’t the same as trend confirmation.
Whether BTC can turn a repair into a stronger uptrend still depends on the underlying capital structure itself.
Going forward, I mainly watch for a few things:
whether BTC / ETH ETF flows improve consecutively.
whether stablecoin supply is expanding again.
whether funding and OI represent healthy repair, or whether short-term sentiment is rebuilding leverage.
whether exchange capital flows are cooperating—not just prices moving first.
If none of these improve in sync, then this rebound is more like a bounce after macro pressure eases, rather than a full-on risk-on.
My view is:
BTC can be a bit less pessimistic than a few days ago, because some of the expectations for further rate hikes at the tail end have been toned down; but it’s still not to the point where we can skip confirmation and directly call for a trend reversal.
What’s truly important isn’t that BTC has risen for two days. It’s whether, behind this rally, it’s just pressure being released—or whether ETFs, stablecoins, derivatives, and exchange capital flows genuinely come back together.
But I think this rebound can’t be viewed only within the crypto bubble. Behind it, there are actually two macro lines moving at the same time.
The first is that after US employment data cooled, the market no longer has to keep trading as if the Fed will be more hawkish, higher for longer, and even reopen discussions about further rate hikes.
This doesn’t mean a rate cut has been confirmed, and it doesn’t mean risk assets have directly entered a loose-cycle bull market. It only means that the tightest macro pressure has been loosened a bit—for now.
The second is that AI is still propping up the US growth narrative.
Current US stock market valuations, tech sector capital expenditures, and the imagination surrounding the dollar’s credit are all deeply tied to AI.
The market is willing to give the US high valuations not only because of current earnings, but because it still believes AI could drive the next round of productivity gains.
So an AI bubble can’t be treated as just a regular bubble. It’s also the market’s bet on whether the US can still produce new assets, new productivity, and new credit stories.
That’s also why BTC’s rebound these two days has a bit of a macro foundation:
employment cooling, which lowers the tail risk of the Fed becoming hawkish again.
The AI narrative remains intact, so the market doesn’t immediately price in a collapse in US growth.
With both working together, risk assets naturally see a repair window first.
But a window isn’t the same as trend confirmation.
Whether BTC can turn a repair into a stronger uptrend still depends on the underlying capital structure itself.
Going forward, I mainly watch for a few things:
whether BTC / ETH ETF flows improve consecutively.
whether stablecoin supply is expanding again.
whether funding and OI represent healthy repair, or whether short-term sentiment is rebuilding leverage.
whether exchange capital flows are cooperating—not just prices moving first.
If none of these improve in sync, then this rebound is more like a bounce after macro pressure eases, rather than a full-on risk-on.
My view is:
BTC can be a bit less pessimistic than a few days ago, because some of the expectations for further rate hikes at the tail end have been toned down; but it’s still not to the point where we can skip confirmation and directly call for a trend reversal.
What’s truly important isn’t that BTC has risen for two days. It’s whether, behind this rally, it’s just pressure being released—or whether ETFs, stablecoins, derivatives, and exchange capital flows genuinely come back together.
