Brothers and sisters, after mixing in the cryptocurrency circle for ten years, I started with a capital of 50,000 and reached 30 million, stepping into countless pitfalls and seizing a few big opportunities. Recently, I've clearly felt that a new trend is forming, which may completely change the way we invest in altcoins.
How was the bull market played in the past? Bitcoin would rise first, then Ethereum would follow, and finally, funds would overflow into various small altcoins, creating a 'rising tide lifts all boats' altcoin season. But this time, the situation is completely different.
ETFs have changed the flow of funds; traditional funds don't invest in small altcoins.
After the BTC and ETH ETFs were approved, an unprecedented phenomenon occurred: traditional funds bought the ETFs and just stayed put, not flowing into small altcoins at all.
Why is this happening? Simply put, the funding paths have changed.
Previously, retail investors and institutions played on exchanges, and once mainstream coins had risen, capital naturally flowed to small altcoins, making the entire process very smooth. What about now? ETFs have become the main entry point for traditional investors. These traditional investors buy ETFs through major institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity, which is equivalent to indirectly holding cryptocurrencies, but they have no need to trade those obscure altcoins on exchanges.
More critically, in the future, mainstream altcoins like SOL, Dogecoin, and LTC are also likely to successively pass through ETFs. Institutions like Grayscale have already submitted ETF applications for these coins, and the SEC is speeding up the approval process.
What does this mean? The newly incoming incremental capital will only focus on mainstream coins and mainstream altcoins that have ETF backing and are high in market value. ETFs act like a 'funding filter,' allowing only mainstream coins to pass through while blocking small altcoins outside.
High-quality mainstream altcoins are draining the funds from small altcoins.
Altcoins that can pass through ETFs are all high-quality varieties that have survived the major shakeout and already account for most of the trading volume in altcoins. They have siphoned off traditional capital, and the remaining small altcoins and junk coins will only spiral downwards or even go to zero due to lack of attention and liquidity.
Data shows that by 2025, the altcoin market has exhibited obvious characteristics of systemic failure, with the equal-weighted price index even falling below the low point of the 2022 bear market. There is almost no long-term capital willing to allocate to altcoin spot trading, and investors' trading behavior has turned into a 'contract game that ends quickly.'
This creates a vicious cycle: the worse the liquidity, the easier it is for prices to plummet; the more prices fall, the less anyone dares to buy. Eventually, these small altcoins turn into so-called 'ghost chains,' forever lying on the blockchain gathering dust.
My choice: focus on two types of promising altcoins.
Faced with this new situation, I completely changed my investment strategy: I liquidated 90% of my small altcoins and focused on two types of promising coins.
The first category is coins that have ETF backing. SOL is a typical representative in this regard; aside from BTC and ETH, it is currently the altcoin most likely to benefit from ETF diversification. Once SOL's ETF is approved, it will attract a large inflow of institutional capital.
The second category is mainstream altcoins that rank high in market value and have actual ecosystems and applications. For example, AVAX with a strong DeFi ecosystem, IMX which has a presence in the gaming track, and the leaders in cross-chain solutions.
When selecting these altcoins, I mainly look at several criteria: whether they belong to popular narratives or mainstream tracks, whether they are the leading players in their tracks, whether they have high growth potential, whether they have actual value support, and whether they are innovative.
The survival strategy in the crypto space must keep up with the times.
The crypto space has undergone fundamental changes. It is transitioning from a highly speculative, retail-led market to an institution-led market with clearer rules.
In this context, we must recognize the reality: the days when buying any altcoin could yield dozens of times returns may be gone forever. The market is becoming stratified, and the gap between mainstream coins and altcoins will continue to widen.
For newcomers, my advice is: stay away from those illiquid and worthless tokens. Focus your energy and capital on high-quality targets to walk more steadily and further in the crypto space.
Of course, this is just my personal observation and judgment. The most certain thing in the crypto space is the uncertainty itself; we all need to maintain a learning mindset and be ready to adjust our strategies at any time.
I hope everyone can seize opportunities and avoid traps in 2025, achieving their investment goals! Follow me for more first-hand information and precise points on crypto knowledge, becoming your guide in the crypto world; learning is your greatest wealth!#ETH走势分析 $ETH
