$BTC rebounds are all opportunities from high altitude; wait a bit, don’t be in a hurry. This place can’t be empty. Short-term trading is casual.
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每天賺百分之六
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2026.07.03 Market Analysis
It is 04:20 AM on 2026.07.03. The two BTC long-term short positions are still in place. The short-term long position from 59088 to 58588 exited with a stop-loss at 57888, and after that there were no new trades. After stopping out by 100 points, the rebound was really grinding on my nerves, so I didn’t participate yesterday.
Since the last June 17 market analysis share, after continuing to look bearish, BTC has dropped from 67000 and broken below the previous low of 59000, then repeatedly tested lower but failed to achieve the bigger downside move that was expected. Currently, a rebound has started around the new low of 57700, and the rebound high reached 62200. Since it has been half a month since I last did a market analysis, the following analysis uses the price action after the previous analysis as the starting point. Looking at the BTC futures contract data on the four-hour level: net shorts keep entering, net longs are exiting, and the net-short entry value is far greater than the net-long. Chasing shorts near the bottom has also gathered a large amount of liquidation positions overhead. The Binance BTC long/short account ratio fell from 3 after the price broke below 58000, and as the price continued to rise it dropped to the current 1.66, which matches the change in values when bottom long positions take profit and exit during an upward move. A MACD four-hour bullish divergence at the bottom has formed. At the daily level, a bottom divergence has also formed, but the fast line has not shown a clear upward turn, and the fast and slow lines are still below the zero axis. For now, the daily-level bottom divergence is to be observed. In summary, due to the dense overhead positions plus the support from the bottom divergence and rebound needs, the mid-term trend is likely to see a rebound.
Since the last June 17 market analysis share, after continuing to look bearish, BTC has dropped from 67000 and broken below the previous low of 59000, then repeatedly tested lower but failed to achieve the bigger downside move that was expected. Currently, a rebound has started around the new low of 57700, and the rebound high reached 62200. Since it has been half a month since I last did a market analysis, the following analysis uses the price action after the previous analysis as the starting point. Looking at the BTC futures contract data on the four-hour level: net shorts keep entering, net longs are exiting, and the net-short entry value is far greater than the net-long. Chasing shorts near the bottom has also gathered a large amount of liquidation positions overhead. The Binance BTC long/short account ratio fell from 3 after the price broke below 58000, and as the price continued to rise it dropped to the current 1.66, which matches the change in values when bottom long positions take profit and exit during an upward move. A MACD four-hour bullish divergence at the bottom has formed. At the daily level, a bottom divergence has also formed, but the fast line has not shown a clear upward turn, and the fast and slow lines are still below the zero axis. For now, the daily-level bottom divergence is to be observed. In summary, due to the dense overhead positions plus the support from the bottom divergence and rebound needs, the mid-term trend is likely to see a rebound.