Today is Independence Day market closure, with no remaining trading days.
Yesterday’s feedback
· Yesterday’s event: 7/2 Non-Farm Payrolls report (moved up to Thursday), expected +115K, actual +57K, a sharp miss; private sector only +49K, and the labor force participation rate fell to 61.5%
· Market reaction: Dow surged +1.14% to a new high
Nasdaq -0.80%, SOX -5.44%; semiconductors saw a continued deep sell-off. The 10Y yield rose only 1 bp to 4.485%.
Sector rotation direction
Broad defensive rally: Healthcare +2.63%, Utilities +2.21%, Consumer Staples +2.03%
Technology XLK -2.71% as capital fled from chips into essentially all non-tech assets
Key contradiction
VIX is only 16.15— the market shows no fear about a SOX breakdown
This is a dangerous signal: either a chip sell-off won’t spread, or VIX is severely mispriced
My view
Since it’s a Independence Day long weekend, on Monday’s open, watch three things: whether SOX can hold 12,350, whether the Dow can hold its all-time high (ATH), and whether the 10Y yield can break below 4.4%
The direction of the rate-cut trade is correct, but the timing uncertainty is extremely high.
Current strategy: control position size and observe, waiting for direction confirmation on Monday. DIA is the cleanest short-term expression of the rate-cut beneficiaries, and it won’t be dragged down by a chip crash.
Domestic fund recommendations
HuAn Gold ETF (HuAn YiFu Gold Exchange-Listed Open-End Fund)
· Ticker: 518880
· Exchange-listed / over-the-counter: exchange-listed ETF (can trade in a stock account, T+0 intraday rollover)
· Price: about 5.50 (needs intraday confirmation)
· Fee rate: 0.50%
· Tracking index: Shanghai Gold Exchange AU9999 spot gold price
· Theme: commodities / gold / hedging
· Technicals: international gold price support at $4,040; resistance at $4,200; AU9999 follows strength in overseas markets.
· Risk warning: if next week’s FOMC minutes are hawkish, gold prices may retrace 2–3% in the short term, and the ETF also carries additional uncertainty from RMB exchange rate fluctuations.
The above are personal trading notes and do not constitute any investment advice. Markets carry risk—invest cautiously.
#美股 #交易笔记
Yesterday’s feedback
· Yesterday’s event: 7/2 Non-Farm Payrolls report (moved up to Thursday), expected +115K, actual +57K, a sharp miss; private sector only +49K, and the labor force participation rate fell to 61.5%
· Market reaction: Dow surged +1.14% to a new high
Nasdaq -0.80%, SOX -5.44%; semiconductors saw a continued deep sell-off. The 10Y yield rose only 1 bp to 4.485%.
Sector rotation direction
Broad defensive rally: Healthcare +2.63%, Utilities +2.21%, Consumer Staples +2.03%
Technology XLK -2.71% as capital fled from chips into essentially all non-tech assets
Key contradiction
VIX is only 16.15— the market shows no fear about a SOX breakdown
This is a dangerous signal: either a chip sell-off won’t spread, or VIX is severely mispriced
My view
Since it’s a Independence Day long weekend, on Monday’s open, watch three things: whether SOX can hold 12,350, whether the Dow can hold its all-time high (ATH), and whether the 10Y yield can break below 4.4%
The direction of the rate-cut trade is correct, but the timing uncertainty is extremely high.
Current strategy: control position size and observe, waiting for direction confirmation on Monday. DIA is the cleanest short-term expression of the rate-cut beneficiaries, and it won’t be dragged down by a chip crash.
Domestic fund recommendations
HuAn Gold ETF (HuAn YiFu Gold Exchange-Listed Open-End Fund)
· Ticker: 518880
· Exchange-listed / over-the-counter: exchange-listed ETF (can trade in a stock account, T+0 intraday rollover)
· Price: about 5.50 (needs intraday confirmation)
· Fee rate: 0.50%
· Tracking index: Shanghai Gold Exchange AU9999 spot gold price
· Theme: commodities / gold / hedging
· Technicals: international gold price support at $4,040; resistance at $4,200; AU9999 follows strength in overseas markets.
· Risk warning: if next week’s FOMC minutes are hawkish, gold prices may retrace 2–3% in the short term, and the ETF also carries additional uncertainty from RMB exchange rate fluctuations.
The above are personal trading notes and do not constitute any investment advice. Markets carry risk—invest cautiously.
#美股 #交易笔记