In this run through June, the Altcoin Season Index briefly jumped from the 30s in April and May up to 49. But it’s still a long way from confirming that altcoin season—75. As for BTC.D, it also slipped from above 60% down to around 58%. The latest reading has Bitcoin hovering back around 58%, with the price moving in the 59–60k range. By the old rules, BTC.D needs to steadily break below 55% and ASI needs to go above 75 before we can say for sure that capital is truly moving out. At this level, it’s more like a gray zone between Bitcoin Season and altseason.
The key is the quality of that “altcoin strength” move. In early June, Bitcoin itself dropped below 70k; leveraged longs got liquidated. On a BTC-denominated basis, alts appeared passively strong—because the base had been hit. In other words, that “it feels like altcoin season” sensation you have may partly be due to Bitcoin simply falling on its own, not because alts are genuinely siphoning up new incremental capital. That kind of relative strength is often a false signal.
Also, this market structure is different from 17/21. Spot Bitcoin ETFs lock a large amount of institutional capital into Bitcoin (the so-called “ETF wall”). Those funds basically won’t spill over into altcoins. So even if there is rotation, it’s more likely to be selective—toward large caps and narrative-driven areas (AI, RWA, ecosystem activity)—rather than the broad “everyone gets a share” kind of bull run from back then. From that perspective, being heavily positioned in Bitcoin right now might not necessarily be the wrong place.
The key is the quality of that “altcoin strength” move. In early June, Bitcoin itself dropped below 70k; leveraged longs got liquidated. On a BTC-denominated basis, alts appeared passively strong—because the base had been hit. In other words, that “it feels like altcoin season” sensation you have may partly be due to Bitcoin simply falling on its own, not because alts are genuinely siphoning up new incremental capital. That kind of relative strength is often a false signal.
Also, this market structure is different from 17/21. Spot Bitcoin ETFs lock a large amount of institutional capital into Bitcoin (the so-called “ETF wall”). Those funds basically won’t spill over into altcoins. So even if there is rotation, it’s more likely to be selective—toward large caps and narrative-driven areas (AI, RWA, ecosystem activity)—rather than the broad “everyone gets a share” kind of bull run from back then. From that perspective, being heavily positioned in Bitcoin right now might not necessarily be the wrong place.
