Just finished sorting out the information on KITE, it's interesting.
This project has two completely different temperaments: one is the grand narrative of 'AI + blockchain' and the endorsement of top institutions, while the other is the pressure brought by real market fluctuations and token distribution after going online.
Many people are easily attracted by the former and scared away by the latter—but I believe that the real long-term story lies in the gap between the two.
First, let's talk about a few easily overlooked details:
1. The token release rhythm is more worth watching than market capitalization.
High FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation) is not a problem unique to KITE, but its release curve and staking mechanism design will directly affect the supply pressure in circulation. If ecological income can partially hedge against the unlocking sell pressure, then price fluctuations may gradually converge.
2. The top five addresses account for 45.49%—this number needs to be broken down.
If most of these belong to institutions, foundations, or long-term locked portions, then concentration may actually become a stabilizer in the early stages of the project; if they belong to early private placements and are in circulation, then caution is needed. On-chain data transparency becomes a double-edged sword here.
3. The landing scenarios of the "AI agent economy" have not been fully articulated.
Now everyone is keen to discuss how fast and cheap Layer-1 is, but KITE's real ambition may be to bring the interaction, payment, and incentives of AI agents onto the chain—if this scenario holds, it will not merely reap the "AI chain" dividends, but rather the infrastructure dividends of future human-machine collaboration networks.
Where is the moat? I think there are three layers:
· Resource-based moat: Shareholders like PayPal Ventures and General Catalyst bring not just money, but also potential payment scenarios and traditional business entry points.
· Data verification moat: 600 million AI agent calls on the testnet, with an average daily on-chain revenue of $70,000—this is rare in the testing phase, indicating that the economic model is functioning in reality.
· Positioning the moat: The positioning of "the underlying infrastructure built for the agent economy" currently has few players, but the window of opportunity won't last long.
Here are several signals I am keeping an eye on:
· After the mainnet launch, will the call volume of AI agents continue to grow?
· Has the buyback and burn mechanism substantively started, and does it affect the circulation volume?
· Are there any ecosystem projects driven by non-investing parties (such as third-party developed AI agents making money on KITE)?
To put it bluntly:
In the crypto world, narrative determines the valuation ceiling, but cash flow and ecological vitality determine the valuation floor.
The institutional halo of KITE has given it a sufficiently high starting point, but the long-term pivot must rest on "how many AI agents are willing to make money, spend money, and save money here."
Let's wait and see.
