⚖️ Bitcoin: The $40K vs. $150K Decision Point $BTC

You've described a classic Wyckoff-style re-accumulation or a major cycle reset.

The Thesis: Repeating Parabolic Structure

Parabolic Leg \rightarrow Sharp Correction \rightarrow Mid-Range Sweep \rightarrow Continuation Rally.

The current price is in that "reset zone" or demand zone (your green circle), which has historically been the final shakeout before the next major expansion.

The uncertainty is the defining feature of this zone—it's designed to make retail traders feel fear and exit their positions, allowing long-term buyers ("whales" and institutions) to accumulate cheaper $BTC .

The Role of the Fed Decision (Today)

The Fed's announcement acts as the ultimate catalyst for the direction of the break.

Fed Easing (Rate Cut / Dovish Signal): Increases risk-on appetite. Capital flows into high-beta assets like crypto. This would likely provide the momentum flip needed to confirm the Vertical Rally scenario.

Fed Hawkish (No Cut / Tightening Signal): Decreases risk-on appetite. Capital flees risk assets. This would likely cause a failure of the current "reset zone" and confirm the Deep Reset scenario.

📈 Conclusion: The Decision Point

The chart is telling you exactly what you wrote: Bitcoin is coiled.

Key Support to Watch: Current analysis places major support around the $90,200 to $85,200 range. As long as the price holds above this area, the long-term bullish cycle structure remains valid.

Key Resistance to Watch: The psychological $100,000 level is the immediate barrier. A clear weekly close above this would confirm the major structural break toward 123K. $BTC