First of all, I want to clarify that I am not a time traveler, just one of the researchers of the Kondratieff cycle.
From the perspective of the Kondratieff wave cycle, we repeatedly reminded in 2019 that 2019 or 2020 would enter the depression period of the Kondratieff cycle, and this is the fifth Kondratieff cycle, which is currently our most significant achievement.
Of course, we also proposed in 2025 that 2025-2027 is the second shock of the depression period, and the fourth quarter of 2025 is the peak of U.S. dollar assets. Whether this view holds, we will wait for time to verify.
Today, we stand at the end of 2025 to look forward to 2026-2028.
First of all, cycles cannot be violated.
Why cycles cannot be violated? In fact, any economy or economic model, technological model, or business model will inevitably see the main contradictions reappear after reaching a certain time cycle, so cycles cannot be violated.
Secondly, in the fourth quarter of 2025, it appears that the prices of dollar-denominated assets are already at the top range.
Especially the US stock market.
We believe that the US stock market needs a major crash in the 4C model, a decline of 40%, this view has been proposed and we are further waiting for time to verify it.
It's not just the US stock market.
We must also see that risk assets like Bitcoin are just beginning to decline.
The next step will choke many people!
Never try to catch a rebound.
On the contrary, we firmly hold a bullish view on gold assets; the price of gold is far from reaching its peak. Everyone can refer to my previous analysis of Zhongjin Gold.
In the fourth quarter of 2025, risks are brewing sharply.
Therefore, the real risk lies in 2026 and 2027.
Thirdly, we believe the real financial risk will manifest in 2026-2027, belonging to a rapid crash mode.
1. US stock market
2. US housing
3. European stock market
4. European bond market
We believe that from 2026 to 2027, the prices of dollar-denominated assets will undergo a significant drop in a wave-like pattern, directly falling without looking back. The sources are three places:
First, private credit collapse;
Second, the AI bubble has serious problems.
Second, there are subprime issues with data center assets.
It can be expressed like this: The financial asset market in Europe and the US is very ominous!
Therefore, our big A will also be greatly affected. Big A will enter a consolidation mode by the end of 2025, continuously declining and consolidating until the end of 2027, and at that time:
1. The real estate market of Dongda will hit rock bottom, and another bloodbath is expected in 2026-2027, especially for companies WanX and WanY.
2. Big A will adjust to the right level, and then a long bull market lasting 5 years will begin!
3. The Dongda economy will hit the bottom and rebound, starting a new round of infrastructure upgrades and economic recovery.
This is something from 2028.
From 2028 to 2030, due to the financial crisis in Europe and the United States, they will enter a deeper economic contraction mode, which is essentially the economic crisis mode after the financial crisis, leading to a comprehensive Great Depression.
Note that we mentioned a term, the Great Depression!
This period of recession from 2020 to 2030 can be called the Great Depression!
Europe will completely regress to the 1960s-70s.
As a result, Europe enters a period of turmoil, starting in 2028, with a Great Depression in the European economy, and the internal environment of various countries will deteriorate significantly, leading to extreme turmoil where various zero-yuan purchases have become commonplace.
From now on, K-shaped differentiation.
We are going down, Europe is going down, the United States is also going down.
After 2030, whether we enter a war mode will depend on whether the Fourth Industrial Revolution arrives, and whether true artificial intelligence brings this, which is also very critical.
However, after 2028, we believe that the world will enter a mode of Great Depression and great turmoil.
We are an exception in Dongda!
Starting from 2028, we in Dongda will enter a recovery phase.
Of course, WW and Japan will be issues we must deal with in the coming years; we have previously analyzed this and will not elaborate further.
Well, that's all I have to say.
If you believe it, just keep believing. If you don't believe it, just keep not believing.
Thank you all for reading.