Author: Asher Zhang, Bitpush

The traditional financial market has been in crisis recently, but the crypto market has emerged from the panic and has seen a small spring market. In addition to the Bitcoin ecosystem, Arbitrum, one of the leaders of Ethereum Layer 2, recently announced its airdrop rules, and market trading enthusiasm is high. Every round of airdrops for major projects will make a group of people rich. Have you received any airdrops? What will be the valuation of Arbitrum's token ARB in the future? What other projects in the Arbitrum ecosystem are worth paying attention to? If you miss this airdrop, how can you seize the opportunity next time? This article will discuss the above questions one by one.

A brief analysis of Arbitrum’s airdrop rules: it may be difficult for “wool parties” to get them easily

Since 2020, "airdrops" can be said to be a large-scale wealth-making movement in the crypto market. Every time a large project issues a coin and airdrops, it will produce a wave of wealth-making effects. As more and more people join this wealth-making activity, many project parties are designing "airdrops" more and more sophisticatedly. So how are the rules for this round of Arbitrum airdrops designed? Will your airdrop be successful?

It can be said that this round of Arbitrum airdrops is not friendly to "freeloaders". The rule design pays more attention to the participation of ecological participants and has formulated anti-witch strategies. According to the official introduction, Offchain Labs, Arbitrum Foundation and data analysis website Nansen jointly designed a token distribution model. The following figure shows the main variables in the distribution process of this round of token airdrops:

This allocation model relies on Nansen's on-chain data and allocates qualification points based on the wallet's on-chain historical activity records. The wallet address must meet at least three points criteria to be eligible for the airdrop. The following figure shows which user behaviors can earn positive points:

By sorting out the various behavioral data of eligible wallet addresses, we can find that many of them need to meet the following conditions: the wallet address bridged to Arbitrum One has conducted more than ten transactions in two different months and has a non-zero balance at the time of the airdrop snapshot; the wallet address bridged to Arbitrum One and Arbitrum Nova needs to conduct at least 25 transactions through Arbitrum One in two different months, and on Arbitrum Nova, the wallet needs to have more than ten transactions; a wallet address that transferred assets worth more than US$250,000 to Arbitrum One conducted more than 100 different transactions in nine different months, and on Arbitrum Nova, the same wallet initiated more than ten transactions.

As can be seen from the above, it is actually very difficult to get the ARB airdrop, but the army of people who want to get the airdrop is indeed huge. At present, the list of eligible wallets covers 625,143 addresses, and the statistical period is from the establishment of Arbitrum One to February 6, 2023. In addition, protocols that have community treasuries and have been driving the Arbitrum ecosystem forward will also be invited to participate in the distribution of some tokens for their own communities.

Offchain Labs has also taken great pains to develop Arbitrum's anti-Witch strategy. Witch addresses are often difficult to distinguish from real behavioral addresses, but they have different goals, one is real use and the other is for potential airdrops. Offchain Labs researchers are committed to identifying possible witch wallets by using clustering algorithms on from_address/to_address transaction data from Nansen Query and integrating tracking and token transfers on Arbitrum and Ethereum. And manually "check" the data that may be false positives. For specific information about witch addresses, please refer to the Arbitrum Foundation Github.

Overall, Arbitrum's rules for this round are strictly designed, which is not friendly to the "freeloaders" who are looking for airdrops. More airdrops will be given to ecosystem participants. Furthermore, many ARB airdrops will most likely be rewarded to multi-frequency transactions and whale users.

What will be the future valuation of ARB? There is still room for Arbitrum ecosystem

According to Bitpush, on March 20, Binance announced that it will launch ARB. As a leading project on Layer 2, what will be the valuation of ARB in the future? In addition, what other opportunities does the Arbitrum ecosystem have?

In the crypto market, analog valuation is a common token valuation method. Therefore, when considering the price of ARB, you can refer to OP and MATIC, which are also Layer2 leaders. Twitter celebrity Mr. Xiong x (@mz_crypto777) tweeted: Arbitrum's listing price is expected to be $1.74! 1) Initial circulation = 12.75% of the total (1.275 billion tokens), 2) ARB's FDV similar to OP and MATIC is acceptable. After comparing the FDV/TVL value with OP and MATIC in proportion, the price of $ARB can be estimated. (Note: The market has fluctuated greatly recently, and the above views are for reference only)

From the on-chain data, there were two huge deposits into Arbitrum in February, with a balance of more than 450 million US dollars, which is likely to be market speculation funds entering the market. With the launch of ARB tokens, it is likely to attract a new batch of funds into the Arbitrum ecosystem, and the Arbitrum ecosystem projects are also expected to usher in a wave of speculation. The following article mainly introduces some of the most noteworthy projects in the Arbitrum ecosystem from the perspective of on-chain data.

According to DefiLlama data, 70% of Arbitrum’s fee market share is overwhelmingly occupied by GMX, and Gains Network has also occupied 7% of the fees after its launch in late December. Currently, the market share of the top 5 protocols that charge fees for Arbitrum is as follows:

What other projects in the ARB ecosystem are worth paying attention to? Twitter celebrity Superalloy.lens (@chrislee0033) tweeted on March 20: RDNT is OK today, and the top projects on ARB are likely to come out, so please pay attention to them. ARB's token distribution has a share of ecological support, just like Op, and the proportion is not small. Interact more when you have time and wait for the blessing.

Twitter celebrity Defi Mochi @defi_mochi said: From this table, we can see that from the ratio of circulating market value to TVL, the best blue chip DEX on Arbitrum should be Camelot, while SolidLizard is more risky. Camelot's token economic model is well designed, because according to the rules, the issuance and destruction of its tokens are expected to be 1:1.

Radiant's tokens RDNT and Y2K Finance are both worth looking forward to. The data of these two projects are shown in the table below. In addition, Y2K's strong performance during black swan events (such as Depegs) proves that it can be used as a risk hedging target in an effective investment portfolio. In addition, I am particularly optimistic about PlutusDAO because it is positioned as the governance aggregator of Arbitrum. I think it will also be a positive event for PlutusDAO to incorporate plsRDNT into its platform. PlutusDAO currently controls 89% of JONES-WETH's liquidity, as well as 52% of DPX tokens and 45% of SPA tokens.

How to further seize airdrops in the future

As we said at the beginning of the article, airdrops are an important way to make money in the crypto market. If you miss ARB, how can you catch the next airdrop? Perhaps following smart money and observing their operations would be a good way.

Lookonchain (@lookonchain) tweeted: We found 6 smart airdrop hunters who got almost all the large-scale crypto airdrops, including: $ARB, $OP, $BLUR, $SOS, $LOOKS, $ENS, $DYDX, $1INCH, $UNI, $HOP, $FORTH, $GTC, etc. Paying attention to their transactions may help you not miss the next airdrop. Their addresses are as follows:

Address 1:

0x6f9bb7e454f5b3eb2310343f0e99269dc2bb8a1d

Address 2:

0x11B1785D9Ac81480c03210e89F1508c8c115888E

Address three:

0x70e7a6621f4cb3c3e073d0539899f49fc88424c0

Address 4:

0x78Ebe56BC138069557C89af35EB29023fF31Ae2c

Address Five:

0x000f4432a40560bbff1b581a8b7aded8dab80026

Address six:

0xd56EE5Ba5A52e15f309108BDd6247C69B4F624C2

It is worth noting that there is a big difference in transaction costs between retail investors and large investors. If it is a leading project, the value of the token is relatively certain at this time; but if the value of the project token is not high, the cost of frequent transactions is also very huge, and retail investors should still consider the overall transaction carefully. With the Ethereum Layer 2 leading projects issuing tokens one after another, it may be a good choice to pay attention to more Layer 2 leaders that have not issued tokens, such as zkSync, StarKNet, etc.

Summarize

Overall, Arbitrum's airdrop rules for this round are more carefully designed, and it is more hoped that the airdrop tokens will be airdropped to actual ecosystem participants and builders. With the listing of ARB, new funds are expected to flow in further, and Arbitrum ecosystem projects are also expected to see a wave of increases. Compared with Layer 2 leaders such as OP and MATIC, the reasonable valuation of ARB is expected to be around $1.74. As for how to seize the airdrop opportunity, it is recommended that operators pay more attention to some smart whale addresses, so that they can more likely "wool up the wool".