The real price of Bitcoin may not be what we see today on exchanges, according to Danicryptoo7, a trader specialized in supply-demand and macroeconomics. He claims that the current value is a temporary illusion, based on superficial liquidity. His thesis holds that when ETFs, corporations, and large institutions control most of the supply, the quote will cease to respond to daily supply and demand to reflect only the extreme scarcity of the asset.
Today, only a minimal fraction of the supply circulates in open markets. For the analyst, the price will not be determined by trading, but by the opportunity cost of the large holders who are unwilling to sell.
How is a market forming where the real price of Bitcoin does not depend on the exchanges?
The real price of Bitcoin would be affected by a process that Danicryptoo7 calls "Bitcoin Illiquid Standard." The concept describes a moment when Bitcoin stops functioning as a volatile speculative asset and adopts a nature similar to gold stored in vaults: valuable, scarce, and with very little visible circulation.
A chart shared by the analyst shows that, between 2018 and 2024, ETFs and public companies went from custodizing nearly 500,000 BTC to more than 1.5 million, while exchanges stagnated around 2.5 million.
Liquidity, therefore, evaporates quickly. At the same time, the massive influx of institutional capital following the approval of ETFs in 2024 drained even more of the supply available to retail investors.
According to the analyst, this phenomenon creates a market where "ETFs do not sell, companies do not sell, and long-term whales do not sell." Thus, the formation of the price ceases to depend on the daily flow and begins to be based on the reluctance of large holders to part with their BTC.
For a retail investor, buying Bitcoin would mean paying the psychological threshold that convinces subjects with horizons of decades. The price becomes a reflection of the corporate opportunity cost.
Today, only a minimal fraction of the supply circulates in open markets. For the analyst, the price will not be determined by trading, but by the opportunity cost of the large holders who are unwilling to sell.
How is a market forming where the real price of Bitcoin does not depend on the exchanges?
The real price of Bitcoin would be affected by a process that Danicryptoo7 calls "Bitcoin Illiquid Standard." The concept describes a moment when Bitcoin stops functioning as a volatile speculative asset and adopts a nature similar to gold stored in vaults: valuable, scarce, and with very little visible circulation.
A chart shared by the analyst shows that, between 2018 and 2024, ETFs and public companies went from custodizing nearly 500,000 BTC to more than 1.5 million, while exchanges stagnated around 2.5 million.
Liquidity, therefore, evaporates quickly. At the same time, the massive influx of institutional capital following the approval of ETFs in 2024 drained even more of the supply available to retail investors.
According to the analyst, this phenomenon creates a market where "ETFs do not sell, companies do not sell, and long-term whales do not sell." Thus, the formation of the price ceases to depend on the daily flow and begins to be based on the reluctance of large holders to part with their BTC.
For a retail investor, buying Bitcoin would mean paying the psychological threshold that convinces subjects with horizons of decades. The price becomes a reflection of the corporate opportunity cost.