It seems that most people now are newcomers, likely experiencing their first encounter with the bull-bear cycle, and there aren't many old hands left.

From the square, discussions in the group, emotions, and operations, you can basically see it all.

Typical mindset when the market turns from bull to bear: denial of reality, fantasizing about a rebound, buying more as prices drop.

When the market peaks and begins to turn, retail investors are still immersed in the warmth of making money, generally feeling that "this is just a pullback," "the fundamentals haven't changed," and "institutions will pull it back." The discussion area is full of calls to hold and increase positions on dips.

At this time, retail investors typically take three steps:

First step, increasing positions to average down. In the early stages of a decline, they will frantically increase positions, even leveraging, treating averaging down as a belief.

Second step, holding on without selling. After breaking key support, turning from floating profit to floating loss, they still refuse to cut losses, insisting that "as long as I don't sell, I haven't lost."

Third step, blaming external factors for the decline. Everything can become a reason: FUD, market manipulation, institutions running away, macro trends... the only thing they won't admit is that the trend has changed.

Until BTC drops 50%-70%, altcoins go to zero, and liquidity dries up, retail investors finally awaken in despair, realizing that "the bull market is gone." But by then, they are usually already deeply trapped, unable to move, and may even sell at the bottom.

The many newcomers who haven't experienced a full bull-bear cycle are likely to follow this script.

By the next cycle, how many of these newcomers will still be around? Let's witness it together with time.