#美SEC推动加密创新监管 Asian stock markets and the cryptocurrency market have collectively declined, mainly due to market expectations that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates.

Recently, the Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, stated that if the economic trends meet expectations, they may raise interest rates.

Currently, the market bets that the probability of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates by 25 basis points is 48%, while the probability of not raising is 51%.

Meanwhile, the yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds has surged to 1.80%, nearing a historic high.

Japan had previously maintained ultra-low interest rates, which allowed Asia to have cheap money available for arbitrage trading, that is, borrowing at low interest to invest in high-return assets.

Once Japan raises interest rates, the cost of borrowing will increase, and everyone's arbitrage game will be disrupted. This could lead to a withdrawal of funds and trigger panic in the market.

However, from the perspective of Bitcoin's chip structure, investor sentiment appears stable, with no signs of panic selling.

Is Federal Reserve Chairman Powell going to resign?

Yesterday, rumors began circulating online that Powell would resign on December 1. However, I believe this is fake news, and the likelihood of Powell resigning early is very low.

This rumor comes from an overseas KOL on Twitter, and it has not been reported by mainstream American media or the Federal Reserve's official website.

As a core position in the Federal Reserve, resigning is not as simple as saying goodbye; it requires formal processes.

Even if Powell wants to resign, the Senate must confirm the new chair, including nomination, review, and voting. It will take at least 2-3 weeks.

Currently, it seems unrealistic for him to resign suddenly.

This rumor may be intended to gain attention, pressuring Powell to cut rates before the December meeting.

Trump is also applying pressure, stating that he has already selected someone to take over as the next Federal Reserve Chair, and it will be announced soon.

The original plan was to announce it before Christmas on December 25, but it is also possible that it will be announced before the December 10 interest rate meeting.

Currently, the most talked-about candidate is Hassett, who is a close economic advisor to Trump and fully supports significant interest rate cuts.

Next is Waller, who is moderate and not aggressive, listens to market opinions, and values communication and logic.

If Waller is chosen, the market will feel that the Federal Reserve won't act recklessly. It all depends on who Trump ultimately selects.

What should we focus on next?

Entering December, there will be many macro events, and it is also a time when investors feel more panic, leading to increased market volatility. At this time, I will manage my positions well to avoid being out of bullets when prices drop.

On December 1, the U.S. will officially stop quantitative tightening, marking a critical turning point in this economic cycle and signaling the end of the liquidity withdrawal era that began in 2022.

The market will shift from a shrinking volume game to a stock or even increasing volume game, which is a long-term benefit for risk assets like U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies. The Federal Reserve will soon enter a quiet period, during which all officials' speeches will be suspended. The market can only rely on this week's three speeches and data to speculate on whether there will be a rate cut in December. On December 2, Powell will give a speech; although the Federal Reserve will enter a quiet period, the market will closely monitor Powell's every move. Everyone wants to know his views on future monetary policy: whether to continue preventive rate cuts or to wait and see inflationary pressures.