Personally, I tend to think that the Federal Reserve will continue to cut rates in December, and the probability of a 50bp cut is small, but it's not unimaginable.

This means that regardless of whether it's cryptocurrency, US stocks, or A-shares, there will be a rebound after a bit of grinding.

As for Bitcoin, let's see if it revisits 82000. After some grinding, if the Federal Reserve continues to adopt a dovish stance, there will likely be a decent rebound before the interest rate cut is finalized on December 11, and it could very well rise above 100,000.

When the interest rate decision was announced in November, the market expected a 90% probability that the Federal Reserve would continue to cut rates in December.

However, the joyful atmosphere did not last long. Several Federal Reserve officials came out to release hawkish signals. Philadelphia Fed President Harker stated that 'the interest rate cut is on dangerous ground,' while Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said, 'I would rather vote against it than agree to continue cutting rates.' Cleveland Fed President Mester also believes that the current financial environment is 'too loose'. This caused the probability of a 25bp rate cut on Polymarket to drop to 30%.

Of course, only Gulbis is the ticket tail for 2025; the other two are just guest actors teasing the market.

Controlling market expectations is the traditional skill of the Federal Reserve.

On November 21, Permanent Voting Member and New York Fed President Williams hinted at a dovish stance, suggesting the probability of further rate cuts in December has risen to around 70%.

However, Lao Xu believes that the unexpectedly high unemployment rate of 4.4% disclosed on November 20 for September is a more critical factor.

Although the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls for September and the unemployment claims for that week are bearish, the current focus of the Federal Reserve is more on the employment rate, even if inflation needs to be pushed back a bit.

Personally, I tend to think that the Fed will continue to cut rates in December. A 50 basis point cut is less likely, but not unimaginable.

This means that whether it's crypto, U.S. stocks, or A-shares, there will be rebounds after some grinding.

As for Bitcoin, let's see if it tests 82000 again. If the Federal Reserve continues its dovish stance, there will likely be a decent rebound before the rate cut lands on December 11, possibly going back up to 100k.

However, I don't recommend everyone to be overly optimistic. If there is a big rebound, the main focus should be on escaping. Even if it later rises to 15, I don't suggest betting.

The pace of interest rate cuts next year is currently unclear. Although Trump will try to support the market while pushing towards a low interest rate of 1-2% for the midterm elections, it is very likely that entering the low interest rate zone will require a big step, and that step might be a black swan.

It’s cold at the top. Ordinary events can easily disrupt the market. Be patient and observe; for now, don't rush to move.

Note, it’s all a game of probabilities, and getting slapped in the face is not ruled out.

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Note: Investment carries risks. Use your own brain to think it through. Self-decision and self-responsibility. My information is just one opinion for reference.

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