The old dog took a look: on $QCOM , it dropped 7.588%, price stuck at 231.63, with an open interest of 38,216 contracts, which isn't too shabby, but the funding rate is flat at 0.00000000, not a shred left. The bulls and bears aren't exchanging cash, indicating neither side dares to make a move. No one in the market genuinely believes it can bounce back immediately, and the shorts don't have the guts to push it down further. This stagnant funding rate reminds me of what I've seen numerous times in the semiconductor chain's perpetuals; often, it’s not the trend's end, but both sides getting spooked.
When peers pop up, it becomes quite interesting. Over at NVDA, they're fighting tooth and nail for computing power, AMD is riding the MI300 wave with the data center narrative, and MU is turning things around thanks to the storage cycle; each has AI backing. $QCOM looks like an outsider, holding onto its mobile chip legacy, and the market thinks, since you aren't selling GPUs, how much does AI really relate to you? But the old dog has to say, in the past two years, a large portion of edge AI and on-device inference runs on the Snapdragon platform, and not many have seriously calculated QCOM's inference chip shipment volume. This drop feels more like being squeezed out of the semiconductor AI rotation, rather than a fundamental collapse. The on-chain perp's open interest structure also reveals hints; recently, those reducing positions are mostly short-term speculative accounts, while the concentration of holdings has actually increased, and several established market makers' wallets haven’t moved much.
Cycle positions need to be revisited too. The semiconductor sector usually sees an end to inventory destocking in the fourth quarter, and QCOM’s channel inventory on the mobile side is already low. Previous operating data pointed towards a shipping rebound. From what I remember, the last time there was a long-term funding rate near zero combined with such a massive daily bearish candlestick occurred during last year's third-quarter adjustment, after which it leisurely bounced back around 18% over the next two months. Although it wasn't a massive surge, it was enough to make those who got caught at the bottom back then curse. The current environment feels somewhat similar: interest rate expectations are wavering, capital is flowing from high-risk hardware into defensive sectors, and QCOM is just being seen as a cash cow. The market says it's broken, there's no saving it, but I actually think this is the most undervalued on-device player in the AI chain; the consensus is off here.
As for specific moves, I’ll be watching the 225 mark. If the weekly close can’t hold 225, I’ll cut my light position without hesitation, no holding onto a losing trade.
Trading tags: #BinanceFutures #TradFi #USDⓈM #QCOM #QCOMUSDT $QCOM
When peers pop up, it becomes quite interesting. Over at NVDA, they're fighting tooth and nail for computing power, AMD is riding the MI300 wave with the data center narrative, and MU is turning things around thanks to the storage cycle; each has AI backing. $QCOM looks like an outsider, holding onto its mobile chip legacy, and the market thinks, since you aren't selling GPUs, how much does AI really relate to you? But the old dog has to say, in the past two years, a large portion of edge AI and on-device inference runs on the Snapdragon platform, and not many have seriously calculated QCOM's inference chip shipment volume. This drop feels more like being squeezed out of the semiconductor AI rotation, rather than a fundamental collapse. The on-chain perp's open interest structure also reveals hints; recently, those reducing positions are mostly short-term speculative accounts, while the concentration of holdings has actually increased, and several established market makers' wallets haven’t moved much.
Cycle positions need to be revisited too. The semiconductor sector usually sees an end to inventory destocking in the fourth quarter, and QCOM’s channel inventory on the mobile side is already low. Previous operating data pointed towards a shipping rebound. From what I remember, the last time there was a long-term funding rate near zero combined with such a massive daily bearish candlestick occurred during last year's third-quarter adjustment, after which it leisurely bounced back around 18% over the next two months. Although it wasn't a massive surge, it was enough to make those who got caught at the bottom back then curse. The current environment feels somewhat similar: interest rate expectations are wavering, capital is flowing from high-risk hardware into defensive sectors, and QCOM is just being seen as a cash cow. The market says it's broken, there's no saving it, but I actually think this is the most undervalued on-device player in the AI chain; the consensus is off here.
As for specific moves, I’ll be watching the 225 mark. If the weekly close can’t hold 225, I’ll cut my light position without hesitation, no holding onto a losing trade.
Trading tags: #BinanceFutures #TradFi #USDⓈM #QCOM #QCOMUSDT $QCOM