Global Markets
-The failure of Silicon Valley Bank, a mid-sized American lender, sent shock waves through the financial system. Svb specializes in providing banking services to technology startups. He ran into trouble as interest rates rose, the value of his bond holdings fell and angry depositors took their money. An attempt to raise capital to cover a gap in its finances failed, leading to a drain on its deposits and a collapse in its share price. On March 13, HSBC bought Svb's British assets for £1, but America's regulators struggled to find a buyer for the rest of the bank.
-Credit Suisse's share price fell by a quarter in the tense atmosphere when its largest investor, the Saudi National Bank, announced that it would not increase its stake in the sector. The troubled Swiss bank was forced to appeal to the Swiss central bank for support in the market meltdown and will borrow up to SFr50 billion ($54 billion) to boost its liquidity and buy back some of its debt.
- Underscoring the recovery in China, retail sales rose 3.5% year over year in the first two months of 2023, reversing a series of declines towards the end of last year. But the statistics bureau warned that the country's economic recovery "is not yet robust".
- Open AI, the company behind chat gpt, has released gpt -4, the latest upgrade to the chatbot's underlying artificial intelligence. gpt -4 can accept images as well as text as input to create comments and replies.
- The UK economy is doing better than expected and will shrink by just 0.2% this year, according to the government budget; This represents an improvement from the previously estimated 1.4% contraction.
-Meta is laying off another 10,000 people, on top of the 11,000 layoffs it announced last year. The parent company of Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp has hired a lot of people during the pandemic, and its boss Mark Zuckerberg has called 2023 a "year of productivity." Markets approve. Meta's share price has rebounded from its November lows.
We have seen a very rapid flow of news since the last weekly newsletter analysis. Banks went bankrupt, we experienced fed speculations, and eventually we saw rapid recoveries in the cryptocurrency market with the intervention of bankrupt banks and what will be done to prevent a liquidity problem caused by banks. Bitcoin, which differentiated itself positively from other markets, managed to exceed its previous peak of 25 thousand.
Bitcoin
https://www.tradingview.com/x/s0SwNcev/
I think the levels on the chart and the movements I expect are working efficiently. The price movement seems very strong and it may be normal for it to pause around 26700, which we are in the immediate vicinity. I think 25200 should not be lost again, that is, a 4-hour closing should not be made. I think that the accumulation around 26700 without losing 25200 will be very positive for going to 28900 level. It is not surprising that the American indices rose sharply due to its impact. Since I think that the accumulation here may be very positive for altcoins, I will also add a few altcoin analyzes in this newsletter. 28900 and 25200 are two critical levels, we can build game plans on them.
In a macroeconomic environment where banks had a liquidity crisis, it was obvious that Bitcoin would play the leading role in the crypto market. For this reason, we can consider it very normal that Bitcoin is more positive against Ether in pricing. We can expect this to be the case during periods when Bitcoin moves very sharply. Therefore, Bitcoin will be the main factor in the Ether movement. Apart from a calm accumulation of Bitcoin, we cannot expect Ether to clearly surpass Bitcoin. That's why I think it will retreat harder in retreats and lag behind Bitcoin in rises. I think 1820 and 1934 will act as resistance in the uptrends. I expect the loss of the blue area, where the price is above, to be withdrawn until between 1545-1500, but I think this area is a strong support and I will wait for 1820 to be tried as the first step.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/tuPWosD2/