SignalPlus Macro Analysis (20240126): GBTC funds continue to outflow

SignalPlus華語 · 2024-01-26T05:57:37.000Z

The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged for the third consecutive time, but President Lagarde expressed a dovish turn through statements and comments; the comment in the previous statement that "price pressures remain high due to continued growth in labor unit costs" this time was omitted from the ECB statement, while Lagarde told a press conference that "a slowdown in inflation is underway" and that price pressures will "ease further during the year", while she reiterated the committee's view that "it is still too early to discuss a rate cut." Too early," but she also qualified that comment, saying it was "possible" that a rate cut would happen in the summer or before the summer if more progress was made in slowing inflation.

The ECB kept interest rates unchanged for the third time in a row, but President Lagarde expressed a dovish turn through statements and comments; the comment in the previous statement that "price pressures remain high due to continued growth in labor unit costs" was omitted in this ECB statement. At the same time, Lagarde stated at the press conference that "inflation slowdown is underway" and that price pressures will "ease further during the year". In addition, although she reiterated that the committee believes that "it is too early to discuss rate cuts", she also expressed reservations about this comment, saying that if more progress is made in slowing inflation, a rate cut "could" occur in the summer or before the summer.
Similar to the US, policymakers have clearly pivoted and are declaring victory in the fight against inflation early, but there are signs that input prices may have reached a short-term bottom and we may soon need to deal with a rebound in prices, especially if the situation with channel closures and higher oil prices continues to worsen.
In the United States, fourth-quarter economic data showed that the U.S. economy remained very strong, with GDP growing by 3.3%, significantly exceeding the expected 2.0%. Personal consumption expenditures also exceeded expectations. Strong government spending, inventory increases and positive net exports constituted the main factors for growth, and final demand also remained at the target level.
The Fed and bond markets are winning again in the soft landing narrative, with stronger GDP, solid consumer spending, continued moderation in price pressures, and a cooling job market (Jobless Claims +27K) pushing yields on a bullish move lower; in addition, the European Central Bank's dovish stance, China's bailout plan and slightly lower than expected Tokyo CPI also helped maintain asset prices. Although Tesla's stock price fell 11% and Intel's performance forecast was bleak, the S&P 500 index still hovered at the historical level. Near the high point.
As the dust settled on the approval of a BTC spot ETF, market sentiment became more negative, with subsequent price action disappointing and BTC struggling to stay above $40,000.
Nine days after the ETF was launched, net outflows accelerated to about $153 million, in stark contrast to the $1.2 billion inflows in the first week. JPM compared the BTC spot ETF with GLD (gold ETF), which attracted only $3.5 billion in inflows a year after its launch, far below the $10-50 billion predicted by various circles. So far, the inflow performance of the BTC spot ETF one week after its launch has also lagged behind that of GLD, mainly due to the continued redemption of GBTC.
Considering that long-term GBTC holders still have huge unrealized gains, and Grayscale's fees are higher than new ETFs, GBTC's capital outflows are likely to continue in the short term, and the current defensive market sentiment will continue for a long time.