USD strengthens as hotter-than-expected US inflation revives Fed rate-hike expectations

๐Ÿ“Œ The US Dollar Index rose to 98.48, up 0.6% for the week, as markets adjusted their monetary policy expectations after a series of stronger-than-expected US inflation readings.

๐Ÿ’ก Treasury yields also moved higher, with the 2-year yield rising to 3.9773% and the 10-year yield reaching 4.4669%, showing that investors are pricing in the possibility of a more hawkish Fed stance.

๐Ÿ”Ž According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a Fed rate hike in December has climbed to 31.8%, up from 16% last week. This shift has given the dollar stronger support against the euro and the British pound.

โš ๏ธ Safe-haven flows also helped lift the greenback, as Iran-related tensions remain unresolved and the Trump-Xi summit stays at the center of global market attention.

๐Ÿ“Š The yuan strengthening to its highest level in three years is a positive signal for trade negotiation expectations, but not enough to weaken the dollarโ€™s safe-haven role in the short term.

โœ… Over the next 24โ€“48 hours, the dollar may retain its advantage if US yields remain elevated and the US-China summit does not produce a strong enough signal to trigger a clear risk-on move.

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