JOLTS hiring rate hits a two-year high, the soft landing data puzzle is coming together
The latest JOLTS report from the U.S. Labor Department shows that in March, the private sector labor market is showcasing the "soft landing" scenario that economists have been hoping for: the hiring rate rebounded to 3.9%, marking the highest level in nearly two years, indicating that companies' willingness to hire is genuinely recovering; the job vacancy rate slightly dipped to 4.3%, close to a one-year low, with frictional mismatches continuing to decrease; the layoff rate only ticked up from 1.2% to 1.3%, still at a historical low, with almost no signs of companies actively cutting back on staff.
This data resonates positively with other recent macroeconomic indicators: the voluntary resignation rate has fallen back to pre-pandemic levels of 2019, and the wage inflation pressure from the "Great Resignation" has basically dissipated; combined with the trimmed mean PCE annualized dropping to 2.3%, both inflation and employment are trending towards normalization.
The latest JOLTS report from the U.S. Labor Department shows that in March, the private sector labor market is showcasing the "soft landing" scenario that economists have been hoping for: the hiring rate rebounded to 3.9%, marking the highest level in nearly two years, indicating that companies' willingness to hire is genuinely recovering; the job vacancy rate slightly dipped to 4.3%, close to a one-year low, with frictional mismatches continuing to decrease; the layoff rate only ticked up from 1.2% to 1.3%, still at a historical low, with almost no signs of companies actively cutting back on staff.
This data resonates positively with other recent macroeconomic indicators: the voluntary resignation rate has fallen back to pre-pandemic levels of 2019, and the wage inflation pressure from the "Great Resignation" has basically dissipated; combined with the trimmed mean PCE annualized dropping to 2.3%, both inflation and employment are trending towards normalization.
