[Bitcoin ETF fund inflow background]
The launch of the Bitcoin Spot ETF marks a historic moment, with first-day trading volume reaching $4.6 billion, making it the largest ETF product launch in history. However, the market later showed skepticism about flow data due to lag and incomplete data provided by traditional finance (TradFi). As Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas pointed out, the delay in flow reporting can reach T+3 (three days after the transaction).
According to the table, GBTC outflows have exceeded $2 billion, with the largest outflows occurring on the third day. But these outflow data may reflect transactions from the previous day, and we can't be sure that the data is up to date for all issuers. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin community supplemented TradFi data by tracking traffic on-chain, but this took days. Three days of on-chain data totaled $1.3 billion in Bitcoin, inconsistent with reported outflows of $1.1 billion, according to on-chain data from intelligence firm Arkham.
Grayscale's sales were expected, but it's unclear how many will ultimately be sold. GBTC holders may choose not to sell to avoid significant unrealized gains and tax implications. Many early sellers sold for ideological reasons, but more than 550,000 Bitcoins remain unsold. Discount to NAV fell from 150 basis points on day one to 47 basis points on January 17.
Bitcoin price remains at $40,000 despite massive selling by GBTC and whales. James Van Straten reports that a whale that continued to hold amid the FTX scandal may have offloaded 100,000 Bitcoin, asking for $49,000. This is not a selling news event, but may just be whale selling after balancing.
The monthly Ichimoku Cloud chart is turning bullish, an extremely bullish signal that only appears during the early stages of a Bitcoin bull run. Given all of these huge sources of demand, the market appears to have only one way to go. Are you ready for the future?
