Yesterday, Bitcoin fell below 39,000 and reached a low of around 38,600. Ethereum also reached a low of around 2,160. The decline of the altcoins was generally more than 10%. The main reason for the decline was the continuous selling behavior of the Grayscale Fund. In recent days, Grayscale has been selling a large amount of Bitcoin every day, from 10,000 to 12,000, and even sold 15,000 Bitcoins yesterday. If Grayscale's selling behavior continues, the market crash may continue. In addition, there are reports that Grayscale's crazy selling is because the FTX incident requires compensation for user assets. The amount of funds involved in the FTX incident is as high as billions of US dollars, which has a huge impact on the entire crypto market. At present, except for Bitcoin, which can withstand such a large liquidity sell-off in the market, other cryptocurrencies can hardly withstand such pressure.
In addition, we can clearly feel from the market that there is still a certain capacity to carry on around 38600. In the short term, there may be a wave of oversold rebound, but the rebound height may be limited. You can refer to around 43000. In the end, it will continue to fall and set a new low. I personally expect the target of this wave of adjustment to be in the range of 32000~35000. Therefore, there should be some room for decline in the future. If you did not exit in time before, you can take advantage of this rebound to reduce your position at highs. After all, the current big cake has fallen below the 40,000 mark. It will continue to fall in the future. It may be a high probability event to fluctuate sideways around 35000. Therefore, before the New Year, it is best for us to buy small when the price drops and buy big when the price drops. In this way, no matter how it fluctuates, the mentality will not change much. Of course, if the big cake gives us a chance to insert a pin, we must also learn to grasp it. As long as the big cake falls below 40,000, it is actually an opportunity. We can execute the plan we made before. Secondly, you can also ambush some low-level orders at present, just like OKB was cut in half yesterday. If you can eat it in at a low level, it is still very comfortable. The current market volatility will increase with the entry of institutions. Our primary priority is to protect our principal and make money slowly.
Let's talk about the OKB crash at Euro-Italian Exchange yesterday. OKB suddenly plummeted around 5 pm yesterday, with a drop of 50%, and the lowest price dropped to 25 US dollars. Euro-Italian officials also responded to this sudden incident. They said that the first reason for the sharp drop in OKB was the overall bad market conditions, and it fell along with the overall market. But the most important thing is that when the OKB price plummeted, it triggered the liquidation of many large leveraged positions. This liquidation is like a domino, one link after another, and finally led to a sharp drop in the OKB price in a short period of time.
Therefore, although the OKB crash initially followed the overall market trend, it was ultimately caused by the liquidation of large leveraged positions. The official EUR/EUR statement said that it would be responsible to the end and take measures to prevent similar incidents from happening again. For ordinary investors like us, this incident is also a reminder that we should pay special attention to risk control and market fluctuations when investing, and not to over-leverage. Our circle lacks supervision. Any market conditions that you think are impossible may be nothing in front of capital. Therefore, we must be full of awe for the market at any time, and do not participate with a fluke mentality. The contract leverage must be accompanied by a stop loss. Look at the previous LUNA directly returning to zero, the previous 312 incident, etc. These are all reminding us that keeping the principal is the most critical, and nothing else is important. Only by keeping the principal can we have the possibility of a comeback. The principal is there, the opportunity is there, and the principal is gone, no matter how good the opportunity is, it has nothing to do with you!
After DOGE rose for a while, it did not see a sustained rise. XRP also did not see a sustained rise. However, looking at the long term, both of these two varieties are currently at a relatively low level. DOGE has the support of Musk, so there will not be much problem in the future. As for XRP's listing expectations, it depends on when it will be hyped.
In addition, you can focus on the currency CFX in the future. There will be a Hong Kong Carnival in April. Looking at the performance of CFX in 23 years last year, it is still quite eye-catching. If we want to buy it, we should layout the leader, so we can still look forward to the expectations of CFX.
The second is CHZ in the fan section. This has always been a place where everyone is lying in ambush. The Asian Cup is going on recently, so the current performance is relatively strong. In addition, there is the European Cup in June. Therefore, as long as there are relevant news events to drive it, we can ambush in advance and pull it up. It is only a matter of time!
With yesterday's decline, ARB also fell below 1.6, and the lowest callback was around 1.54. As expected, if Bitcoin retests 35,000 or below, then ARB will most likely adjust to around 1.3. Therefore, it is not a big problem to ambush at the current position. We can execute the strategy we formulated before, buy more when the price drops sharply, and buy less when the price drops slightly. If it really goes below 1.3, it is an area worthy of our heavy ambush. The real bottom will definitely give us enough time to enter the market. Therefore, it is enough to ambush for a while at present. The heavy position can be adjusted for a period of time to see in which specific range it will stay, and then we will choose the opportunity to intervene with heavy positions.
at last:
In general, the current market is still in a downward trend. There may be a rebound in the short term. At present, you can place some orders at low levels. If you can get a profit in this rebound, it will be quite comfortable. If you can't grasp this kind of market, control your position well and mainly participate in spot trading. Those who have not reduced their positions before can also take advantage of this high to reduce their positions. After all, it has fallen below the 40,000 mark. It is expected that after this rebound ends, it will continue to fall. Therefore, once the market has a large correction, it is a good time for us to bottom out in batches. In short, buy small when it falls a little, buy large when it falls a lot, and mainly participate in spot trading!
