Another rate cut is almost certain. Market participants were eagerly awaiting the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) this Friday, October 24, 2025. This is an important indicator of whether the Fed (the US Federal Reserve) will continue to lower its key rates, as it did again last month. And the figures are now in: inflation is proving lower than expected.
Key points of this article:
Financial markets eagerly awaited the US consumer price index to assess the Fed's future policy.
The CPI release revealed inflation held steady at 3%, reinforcing expectations of a further cut in the Fed's key interest rates.
Inflation under control? CPI stagnates at 3% year-on-year in the United States
On October 24, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the monthly update of the CPI, or Consumer Price Index, which measures inflation in the United States. And despite a very slight increase, it is less strong than what was feared, going from 2.9% to 3% over a rolling year.
This is indeed better than expected, since the markets were anticipating a rise of 3.1%. And even better: the CPI Core index, which excludes categories subject to more volatility such as food and energy, even fell by -0.1%, to stand at 3% over one year also, against 3.1% previously and a forecast of 3.1%.
Consumer price inflation (CPI) is rising very slightly, but less than expected. – Source: investing.com
Another Fed Rate Cut Ahead: Good News for $BTC and Cryptocurrencies
While the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets have yet to react strongly to these CPI figures, this continued control of US inflation should be bullish for the sector. Indeed, the Federal Reserve and its Chairman Jerome Powell are ensuring that inflation does not rise too sharply as the US central bank continues to lower its interest rates .
Financial market observers and players are more than confident that a further rate cut will take place at the next FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting on October 29.
Indeed, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool (below), nearly 95% of market participants anticipate a cut in the Fed's key interest rates. These rates should therefore be reduced by 25 basis points, to settle in a range of 3.75 to 4% (compared to 4 to 4.25% currently).
This second rate cut for 2025 (before a third in December?) is all the more certain since the new Fed governor, Stephen Miran, appointed by President Donald Trump, is a fervent supporter. Last month, he even argued for a 50 basis point cut instead of just 25 points. In any case, in the long term, this reduction in rates by the American central bank should benefit Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies because, as with stocks and other "risk-on" assets, it indicates a more accommodative monetary policy and an influx of liquidity.