Timothy Peterson makes it clear that the market seasonality for BTC still looks very familiar.
Financial analyst Timothy Peterson, known in X as nsquaredvalue, has once again compared the current trajectory of 2025-2026 with the average scenario of past bear cycles from 2014, 2018, 2019, and 2022. Plus each of them individually. And the picture so far is indicative - after the weakness at the end of the year, the market on average formed a local bottom around winter, and then in the second quarter transitioned to recovery. And #BTC in April of this year is showing growth.
On the chart, the line for 2025-2026 is quite close to the historical bearish pattern. It is evident that after the decline into the winter period, the dynamics stabilized, and then began to gradually pull upwards. So far, the market is not deviating from the logic that has been observed multiple times in previous cycles.
It is important, of course, to understand the limitations of such models. Seasonality is NOT a magical prediction. It does not mean that #BTC "is obligated" to repeat the past trajectory exactly. But such comparisons are useful as a guideline - they show where the market has been before and how participants typically behaved in similar phases of the cycle.
Of course, it is not very pleasant to take this chart as a working model, because then one has to accept as a fact that the current market is bearish. And that the previous cycle is over. Accordingly, one would have to disregard the effectiveness of the Bull Market Peak Indicators - Sell At The Top from #Coinglass. Which still shows that BTC has not set a cycle high. Let us remind you that this index combines 30 (!) indicators, metrics, and indices, ranging from relatively obscure to well-known ones like the Pi Cycle Top Indicator, Altcoin Season Index, Bitcoin Dominance, Bitcoin MVRV Ratio. This refers to recognized tools that have proven themselves in the past.
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Timothy Peterson is a financial analyst and cryptocurrency market researcher known for his fair value models of #BTC and studies on long-term and seasonal price cycles. His analytical works and methodologies are regularly cited in #Bloomberg, #CNBC, and #Forbes.