Original title: (If we gather all the most accurate predictors of gold in history, can we decipher future gold prices? I have compiled the most accurate analysis of gold over the past ten years) Original author: JiaYi, founder of GeekCartel
If I gather the most accurate predictors of a financial product—such as gold—throughout history, the most authoritative institutions, and the most famous analysts, and compare each of their predictions with the actual results to find out 'who is the most accurate'... and then see how these 'most accurate people' view the future now?
Does that mean I have mastered the wealth code of this financial asset?
With this thought in mind, I really went ahead and did it. Taking gold as a sample, I dug through over a decade of prediction records. For this research, we singled out three types of people: the top-tier investment banks and industry institutions on Wall Street, the big voices in the gold sector, and the "genius players" who accurately predicted key reversals.
Let's take a look at the data one by one.
We have gathered all the predictive data and laid it out.
Wall Street professional institutions:
· LBMA (London Bullion Market Association) invites dozens of top analysts each year to make annual predictions for gold. In 2025, the average prediction from 28 analysts was $2,735/ounce. The most optimistic analyst that year—Keisuke (Bill) Okui from Sumitomo Corporation—gave $2,925, and won the "most accurate prediction award" for being "closest to reality."
What was the actual average gold price in 2025? $3,431.
In other words, the most bullish analyst in the entire market, who ultimately won the award, still had a prediction that was 15% lower than the actual price. The market consensus underestimated it by a full 20%.
· Goldman Sachs has two remarkable records in the history of gold forecasting. In April 2013, Goldman issued a report explicitly recommending to short gold, targeting $1,450. Gold subsequently plummeted by 26%, and Goldman was hailed as a genius.
But recently, Goldman flopped. In October 2024, Goldman predicted that gold prices would be $2,700 in 2025.
What about reality? Gold prices skyrocketed in 2025, surpassing $5,600 by early 2026. A difference of one fold.
· JPMorgan gave a benchmark of $5,055 for gold prices by the end of 2025. As a result, gold prices broke through this level ahead of time.
Gold Road V:
· Peter Schiff, the most famous "perpetually bullish" player in the gold circle. Over a decade ago, he was already shouting for "$5,000 gold." From 2013 to 2018, gold prices were stagnant for five to six years, and he was ridiculed and called a "broken clock." But by early 2026, gold prices did indeed surpass $5,000. His latest statement (March 23): called the recent drop "illogical", predicting gold prices will soar to $11,400 within three years.
· Jim Rickards, another long-time advocate for "$10,000 gold." The core logic is that BRICS de-dollarization will force a reset of the global monetary system. The direction is correct, but the timeline has repeatedly been pushed back, and the target price has yet to be achieved.
· Robert Kiyosaki (author of Rich Dad Poor Dad), predicted in mid-March: after the upcoming "largest bubble burst in history," gold will reach $35,000.
The genius player who accurately predicted reversals:
· Nouriel Roubini ("Dr. Doom"), hailed for predicting the 2008 financial crisis. He made two impressive judgments on gold: in June 2013, when gold prices were around $1,400, he wrote that "the gold bubble is bursting," targeting $1,000. At the end of 2015, when gold prices touched a low of $1,050, it perfectly validated his prediction. In January 2023, when gold hovered around $1,900, he turned bullish, predicting a 10% increase each year for five years, targeting $3,000. Gold prices later far exceeded this number.
· Ben McMillan (Chief Investment Officer of IDX Advisors), stood out in recent market conditions. In early 2024, with gold around $2,000, he predicted it would reach $5,000 within five years. At that time, the market thought it was "almost crazy." The result was that gold prices reached this level in just a year and a half.
· Ray Dalio (founder of Bridgewater Fund) does not give specific prices, but qualitatively judges from a macro cycle perspective. In January 2026, he called gold the "second major currency" and suggested a portfolio allocation of 5-15%.
After looking at the data, you might think—are some people quite accurate?
Don't rush. The above is just their "most famous few times." When I look at their complete records, the picture is different.
Wall Street professional institutions: typical lagging predictions.
What is called lagging prediction? It is when the bull market has already arrived, and they only start to raise their target prices; however, the adjustments never keep up with the actual price increases. When the bear market arrives, they start to lower the targets, but always do it too slowly.
The 28 analysts from LBMA are the best example. They make a prediction once a year, essentially making a slight extrapolation of "already occurring trends." In 2024, gold prices had risen to $2,700, but their median prediction for 2025 was only $2,735—almost just carrying over last year's closing price as the prediction. The result was an average of $3,431 in 2025, hitting them hard with a 20% miss.
Goldman also follows the same pattern. By the end of 2024, they predicted only $2,700 for 2025, but gold prices later broke through $5,000. JPMorgan gave a benchmark price of $5,055, and gold prices broke through ahead of time.
The activities of such institutions are more accurately described as **"trend confirmation"**—telling you that what has happened is indeed happening, but their judgment on the magnitude is always conservative. If you wait for their signals to make decisions, you will always be one step behind.
Big voices in the field: even a broken clock can be right twice a day.
Peter Schiff has been shouting $5,000 gold for over a decade. Jim Rickards has always called for $10,000. Kiyosaki directly calls for $35,000.
Their strategy essentially consists of shouting bullish predictions every year. If prices rise, they say, "I said it long ago," and if they fall, they say, "It's not time yet."
The more fatal problem is that these predictions lack time granularity. They do not tell you when to enter and when to exit. If you listened to Schiff and fully invested in gold in 2011, you would have to endure five to six years of sideways movement and losses to wait until today. Faith in this thing does not have a hemostatic function when you are down 40%.
Genius players: Are they really always accurate?
These types of people are the most misleading. Because they have indeed made astonishingly accurate judgments at certain key moments, the market has given them the aura of "prophets." But when I look at their complete records, the picture is not so perfect.
Roubini was correct in his bearish view in 2013, and also correct in turning bullish in 2023. He captured both turning points, which is indeed impressive.
But do you know what he missed in between? When gold prices just broke through $1,000 in 2009, Roubini publicly said, "It is impossible to rise another 20-30%." The result? Gold prices soared to $1,900 in 2011, an increase of nearly 90%. By the end of 2009, when gold prices reached $1,200, he said again, "It looks very much like a bubble," and "gold has no intrinsic value."
Throughout the entire gold bull market from 2009 to 2012, Roubini repeatedly called for a bearish outlook and completely missed it. This history is not mentioned by anyone; everyone only remembers his impressive bearish call in 2013 and his bullish view in 2023.
Ben McMillan predicts $5,000 by early 2024, in just a year and a half. The logic is based on structural changes in central bank gold purchases, which indeed turned out to be correct. But the question is: Is this the only widely recorded prediction he has in the gold field? The sample size is just one. Can one correct call indicate systemic predictive ability?
Ray Dalio sounds the most stable—he does not predict prices, only gives allocation advice. But if you look at his macro prediction record: in 1981, he firmly believed the US would enter a great depression, shouting everywhere in newspapers, on TV, and in congressional hearings, only to be completely wrong; Bridgewater almost went bankrupt, and he had to borrow $4,000 from his father to pay household bills. In 2015, he said, "It will repeat 1937," but it did not happen. In 2018, he said, "A recession within two years," but that did not come. In October 2022, he shouted, "Perfect storm"—that month just happened to be the bottom of the US stock market.
Almost every two or three years, they predict a financial crisis, most of which do not happen. But ironically, his statement, "You don’t need to predict prices, just allocate 5-15%" has become the most useful sentence among everyone.
The script of 2011 is being reenacted in 2026.
There is a particularly interesting finding in the report.
Before gold prices peaked at $1,923 in 2011, market predictions crazily escalated: at the beginning of the year everyone predicted $2,000, doubled by mid-year, and near the peak, Jim Sinclair called for $12,500, while Rob Kirby called for $15,000. The most extreme predictions appeared just weeks away from the actual peak.
Then in September, gold prices plummeted. What was the reaction of the predictors? First say "healthy correction," then reluctantly adjust the target price down by 20-30% after a few months, and finally push the timeline indefinitely.
In March 2026, gold prices plummeted 25% from a historical high of $5,600 to around $4,200—recording the largest single-week decline since 1983. What was the reaction of the vast majority of institutions and celebrities? They maintained their existing extremely high target prices, and even thought the drop was "the best buying opportunity."
History does not repeat itself simply, but the script is indeed very similar.
So how do they view the future now?
Since we have dug it out, let's also list their latest judgments for everyone's reference:
· Roubini's previous target of $3,000 has been achieved, and his bullish outlook remains unchanged, with the core logic being: inflation expectations returning + long-term structural rise.
· McMillan believes it will reach $10,000 in five years, with the core logic being: central bank gold purchases + US debt crisis + BRICS de-dollarization.
· Dalio still does not give a price, suggesting an allocation of 5-15% due to the structural decline of fiat currency credit.
· Jamie Dimon believes it may reach $10,000 within this year, with the core logic being: economic concerns + inflation + asset bubbles.
· Peter Schiff believes it will reach $11,400 within three years, calling the recent drop "illogical"
· Kiyosaki believes it can reach $35,000, achieved after "the biggest bubble burst in history."
· JPMorgan believes it will reach $6,300, with the core logic being: the drop is profit-taking.
· Goldman believes the price will reach $5,400, with the core logic being: the bull market is not over.
· UBS believes it will reach $6,200 and maintains a bullish outlook.
Did you see it? From $5,400 to $35,000, the highest and lowest differed by nearly 7 times. In the same market environment, with the same data sources, the answers from these top minds globally can vary so much.
So, have you found the "wealth code"?
My conclusion after completing all the sorting: I have not found it.
Institutions are always chasing, big voices are always shouting, and genius players are not always right—they are only correct at specific moments, while no one remembers the times they were wrong. Overlaying the predictions of these three types of people not only fails to yield a more accurate answer but actually makes it more chaotic. Because they often contradict each other at the same point in time.
Originally, I thought that "finding the most accurate person and following him" was a path. After completing this research, I found that in the field of gold forecasting, there is fundamentally no "always accurate person," only those who happened to be right this time.
Written at the end
Just a single gold has completely demystified the so-called financial experts for me.
Whether ALPHA can be captured by you, besides models and data, may really depend on fate.
So, in the end, rather than trying to crack the wealth code, I decided to learn from Dalio—not to predict specific prices, but to acknowledge uncertainty and manage risk through allocation.
Gold entered warehouses last year and will continue to do so this year. Individuals calculate investment time dimensions based on a 10-year cycle.
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