Investing in cryptocurrency, the token economic model is an unavoidable topic. The design of Plume's PLUME token is quite intricate, taking into account long-term incentives while avoiding short-term crashes. Today we will break down its unlocking mechanism and potential impacts in detail.
Total of 10 billion pieces, with 3.035 billion currently in circulation, a circulation rate of 30.4%. This means that nearly 70% of the tokens have not been released yet, and they will be gradually unlocked over the next 3 years. This pace has a significant impact on the price; understanding the unlocking schedule is crucial for determining when to buy and when to sell.
The allocation structure is as follows: ecosystem accounts for 39% (3.9 billion pieces), investors 21% (2.1 billion), team and contributors 20% (2 billion), foundation treasury 13% (1.3 billion), airdrop and community 7% (0.7 billion). During the TGE (Token Generation Event, January of this year), 11.5% was released, mainly due to the full unlocking of the airdrop portion (700 million pieces) plus part of the ecosystem and foundation (totaling 450 million).
100% of the airdrop is released at TGE, which has both pros and cons. The advantage is that early users and testnet participants receive rewards, and it is released all at once, with no subsequent selling pressure. The downside is that 700 million tokens suddenly enter the market, and if there are not enough buyers, it could lead to a crash. In practice, PLUME did experience a drop after TGE (from $0.15 to $0.10), but quickly stabilized, indicating that the market's absorption capacity is still acceptable.
The releases from the ecosystem and foundation are linear, releasing monthly over 3 years. To calculate, the 3.9 billion ecosystem part releases 108 million tokens each month, and the 1.3 billion foundation part releases 36 million each month, totaling about 144 million tokens per month. This accounts for 1.44% of total supply and 4.7% of current circulation. This incremental increase is relatively moderate and will not cause severe selling pressure. Moreover, the ecosystem portion is mainly used for liquidity incentives, partner rewards, and developer funding, so many tokens will be locked in protocols or staked, resulting in even less actual circulation.
The unlocks for investors and the team are stricter, with a 1-year lock-up period. This means that from the TGE, not a single token from these two parts will be released during the first year (until January 2026). After the 1-year lock-up period ends, 33% will be unlocked for the first time, and the remaining 67% will be released linearly over the next 2 years. To calculate specifically: investors have 2.1 billion tokens, with the first unlock of 693 million after one year, then releasing 57.75 million each month (remaining 1.407 billion / 24 months). The team has 2 billion tokens, with the first unlock of 660 million after one year, and then releasing 55 million each month.
The logic behind this design is to bind investors and the team closely to the project for the long term. The first year is completely locked, and they can only benefit from the project's success, with no early cash-out. After one year, 33% is unlocked, providing a liquidity outlet, but it won't all be dumped at once. The remaining 2 years will be released linearly to ensure there is still an incentive for them to continue pushing the project's development. For the market, this means that January 2026 is a critical node, when there will be a large unlock (investors + team approximately 1.35 billion tokens). If not handled well, there may be selling pressure.
It is now October 2025, and there are 3 months until January 2026. During this period, only 144 million tokens (ecosystem + foundation) will be unlocked each month, so the pressure is not great. Let's take a look at the specific unlocking schedule:
October 1: Unlock 101 million tokens, total circulation 3.135 billion (31.4%)
November 1: Unlock 102 million tokens, total circulation 3.237 billion (32.4%)
December 1: Unlock 101 million tokens, total circulation 3.338 billion (33.4%)
January 1, 2026: TGE completes 1 year, investors and teams unlock for the first time, plus the monthly releases from the ecosystem/foundation, a total of approximately 1.45 billion tokens will be unlocked, bringing cumulative circulation to 4.788 billion (47.9%)
The cliff unlock in January is a risk point. 1.45 billion tokens account for nearly half of the current circulation. If there is a concentrated sell-off, the price will be under pressure. However, it also depends on the motives of the unlock recipients. Investors (top institutions like Galaxy, Haun Ventures, Apollo) usually do not dump immediately; they value long-term returns and hold large positions, selling all at once would crash the price and harm their own interests. The team and early contributors are similar; they still need to build the ecosystem, and cashing out too early would affect the project's reputation. Therefore, the actual selling pressure may be less than the numerical figure suggests.
There have been similar cases in history. For instance, projects like Aptos and Arbitrum experienced price fluctuations at cliff unlocks, but if the fundamentals are good and market sentiment is stable, they can recover quickly. The key is to observe the macro environment and project progress at that time. If January 2026 happens to be the peak of a bull market, new buying can absorb the selling pressure, and the price may consolidate or even rise slightly. If it is a bear market, that would be more troublesome.
From a valuation perspective, let's do some calculations. The current market cap is $330 million (circulation of 3.035 billion tokens × $0.1085), and FDV is $1.085 billion (total supply of 10 billion × $0.1085). The FDV/market cap ratio is 3.3 times, indicating that there is still dilution risk in the future. If the price remains unchanged, when all tokens are unlocked, the market cap will rise from $330 million to $1.085 billion. However, it is practically impossible for the price to remain unchanged; either TVL and user growth keep pace, increasing market cap, or demand is insufficient, resulting in a price drop to maintain market cap stability.
Compared to other projects, PLUME's unlocking rhythm is considered moderately friendly. For example, ICP (Internet Computer) had an excessively fast early unlock, causing the token to drop 99% from its peak. Although Solana also had a large number of unlocks, the demand outpaced supply due to the explosive ecosystem, resulting in a price increase instead. The key for PLUME is whether it can deliver good results in Q1 2026—launching the Nest treasury, Apollo product going live, and TVL breaking through 500-1,000 million. If these are achieved, the January unlock will not be a problem.
Another detail is the token's utility. PLUME is not purely a governance token; it has real use cases: paying gas fees, staking to protect the network, and serving as collateral in DeFi protocols. As on-chain activities increase, this demand will consume circulation. For example, gas fees will burn a portion of PLUME (though the ratio has not been disclosed), staking will lock up a portion (there is currently no specific APY data, but Proof of Representation consensus requires staking), and DeFi collateral will also reduce circulation. If this demand is strong, even if unlocks increase supply, the net circulation growth may be limited.
From on-chain data, the number of holding addresses is steadily increasing. There were 3.75 million users during the testnet phase, and after the mainnet launch, there are over 200,000 active addresses (holding RWA wallets). The estimated number of PLUME holders is between tens of thousands to over a hundred thousand (with exchange wallets accounting for the majority and individual wallets on-chain being a smaller portion). If this number can grow to 500,000 or even 1 million, the demand side will improve significantly.
Market liquidity is also a factor. PLUME is listed on 42 exchanges with a daily trading volume of $75 million, giving a turnover rate of 23% for a market cap of $330 million, indicating good liquidity. Major exchanges like Binance, HTX, and Gate have depth, and large trades will not cause significant slippage. This means that even if there is selling pressure in January, the market has the capacity to absorb it, and it won't crash directly.
Strategically, investors can adjust their positions based on the unlocking rhythm. From now until the end of December, the unlocking pressure is small. If the project has good news (such as new partners or TVL growth), the price may rise, and one can hold or even increase their position. As January approaches, if the price has risen significantly (for example, to $0.15-$0.20), one might consider taking some profit due to the uncertainty of the cliff unlock. After the January unlock, observe the market reaction; if the price does not drop significantly or even stabilizes, it indicates strong demand, and one can buy back in. If there is a drastic drop, wait for stabilization before entering again.
Long-term holders do not need to worry too much. A 3-year lock-up period is long, and there will be countless cycles of ups and downs in between. The key is to look at the project's fundamentals—whether TVL can continue to grow, whether RWA market share can expand, and whether regulatory licenses can be obtained. If all these are okay, even if there is selling pressure in the short term, the token's value will be reflected in the long term. Just like Ethereum in its early days, there were also a lot of unlocks, but the ecosystem took off, and the price rose from a few dollars to several thousand dollars.
Another potential catalyst is buybacks and burns. Currently, Plume has not announced a buyback plan, but many projects will use protocol revenue to buy back and burn tokens, reducing circulation. Plume's revenue sources include gas fees, issuance fees from the Arc engine, cross-chain fees from SkyLink, etc. If these revenues are considerable (for example, a monthly income of several million dollars), using a portion to buy back and burn PLUME can offset the inflation caused by unlocks. This will depend on subsequent announcements.
In summary, PLUME's unlocking mechanism is overall reasonable, with no particularly outrageous designs. The airdrop has already been fully released, and the linear release pressure from the ecosystem and foundation is controllable, while the investors and teams have a 1-year lock-up period to ensure their interests are aligned. January 2026 is a critical juncture, and close attention should be paid to the market environment and project progress at that time. If it is successfully navigated, the subsequent releases will be steady, combined with ecosystem growth, and the token economy will enter a healthy track.
The current price is $0.1085. Considering a 70% dilution in the future, the true valuation should be discounted. However, if TVL can grow threefold (from 300 million to 900-1 billion) and user growth fivefold (from 200,000 to 1 million), then dilution would not be a problem; instead, it would be an opportunity for growth. This is the game of token economics—balancing supply and demand to see who runs faster.
