📊【4.4 BitTiger Diary】Bear Market Copying Historical Bottoms Just Looking at CVDD is Enough!
Today I’ll share with my brothers one of the indicators that assisted my decision-making in the last round of bottom fishing.
cvdd: is the ratio of the accumulated dollar value of coins destroyed over days to the market age (in days).
Every bear market bottom tests the CVDD price, and many long-term holders consider it the ultimate support. This is one of the reasons I perfectly captured the bear market bottom at the end of 2022.
Many rookie bloggers (especially those who rely on traffic, loud calls, and selling courses) say that buying at over 60K and at over 40K is no different; they claim it’s the same in the long run, stating that this is the bottom, so don’t wait. However, this often ignores the real situation of ordinary people: limited funds, cannot endlessly average down, easily lose confidence when deeply trapped, and have a high probability of heavy losses in a single shot. For them, buying heavily at a halfway point (like the current position of 67K) versus buying at historical bottom areas (around 40K or even lower) results in vastly different experiences and outcomes.
There’s also the “pseudo-long-termism” viewpoint: anyway, BTC might be worth millions in 10 years; now 60K and 40K are indeed similar. But this holds true for those who have held for a few years—it’s easy for them to say, but for ordinary people who are just preparing to enter the market now, it’s like talking without feeling the pain.
Being able to identify the bear market bottom zone and the bull market peak zone reflects a person's complete understanding of Bitcoin, and I do not accept rebuttals.
Currently, the CVDD prices from major mainstream on-chain data websites are:
glassnode: 45500
cryptoquant: 47962
looknode: 50224
BTCmagazine: 47445
coinglass: 47472
Each platform has slightly different parameters, but they are generally within my hitting zone of 35K-50K range. However, as Bitcoin approaches diminishing marginal returns, I also agree with Brother Bullet’s viewpoint: this year $BTC will first break below the CVDD price, just like it first broke below the 200-week moving average in 2022. Please stay tuned! Let’s strive for a doubling, doubling, and doubling of coin quantity!✊✊
BTC: 66800
#比特虎日记 #美国非农就业远超预期 #BTC行情
Today I’ll share with my brothers one of the indicators that assisted my decision-making in the last round of bottom fishing.
cvdd: is the ratio of the accumulated dollar value of coins destroyed over days to the market age (in days).
Every bear market bottom tests the CVDD price, and many long-term holders consider it the ultimate support. This is one of the reasons I perfectly captured the bear market bottom at the end of 2022.
Many rookie bloggers (especially those who rely on traffic, loud calls, and selling courses) say that buying at over 60K and at over 40K is no different; they claim it’s the same in the long run, stating that this is the bottom, so don’t wait. However, this often ignores the real situation of ordinary people: limited funds, cannot endlessly average down, easily lose confidence when deeply trapped, and have a high probability of heavy losses in a single shot. For them, buying heavily at a halfway point (like the current position of 67K) versus buying at historical bottom areas (around 40K or even lower) results in vastly different experiences and outcomes.
There’s also the “pseudo-long-termism” viewpoint: anyway, BTC might be worth millions in 10 years; now 60K and 40K are indeed similar. But this holds true for those who have held for a few years—it’s easy for them to say, but for ordinary people who are just preparing to enter the market now, it’s like talking without feeling the pain.
Being able to identify the bear market bottom zone and the bull market peak zone reflects a person's complete understanding of Bitcoin, and I do not accept rebuttals.
Currently, the CVDD prices from major mainstream on-chain data websites are:
glassnode: 45500
cryptoquant: 47962
looknode: 50224
BTCmagazine: 47445
coinglass: 47472
Each platform has slightly different parameters, but they are generally within my hitting zone of 35K-50K range. However, as Bitcoin approaches diminishing marginal returns, I also agree with Brother Bullet’s viewpoint: this year $BTC will first break below the CVDD price, just like it first broke below the 200-week moving average in 2022. Please stay tuned! Let’s strive for a doubling, doubling, and doubling of coin quantity!✊✊
BTC: 66800
#比特虎日记 #美国非农就业远超预期 #BTC行情
