Grandpa's check-in day 188
Bitcoin fell below 20,000 in a short period of time after extreme panic. Almost at the same time when the USDC crisis was resolved, it rose to 22,000. After a slight consolidation, it rushed to 24,000 in one go. The highest point reached 24,800, almost touching the previous pressure level of 25,000. To be honest, I just think that the market does not need to be overly pessimistic. I did not expect this V-reversal to be so rapid. It fell for half a month and then pulled back in two days. In fact, from the indicators, according to the moving average theory, it is still in a long-term bull market. As for my expectation of a small bull market, on the one hand, it comes from this, and on the other hand, I have a prejudgment of the pace of interest rate hikes.
According to the Fed, there was no discomfort in the continuous rate hikes over the past year. On the contrary, the employment data showed strong performance, so the Fed could continue to raise interest rates and even increase it by 50 basis points in March. However, the bank crash this time gave Bao a slap in the face. Next, the market will continue to have an expectation of a turn to rate hikes. This expectation will gradually make funds bolder and push up asset prices. This is the "bull market" I have always envisioned. The retracement this time (25,000-19,500) was caused by the change in the Fed's rate hike rhythm, in addition to the need to clean up the market. Now everything is back on track.
Of course, this rise is likely to benefit from the impact of double hedging. Because of the decoupling of USDC, people holding stablecoins such as USDT and USDC have become wary, including CZ who said that he would convert the $1 billion recovery fund into BNB, BNB and BNB. The collapse of banks has made those holding fiat currencies seek safe-haven assets. Since it is not safe to keep money in banks and it is impossible to exchange it for paper money and keep it at home, the prices of assets that hedge against fiat currencies have risen, including gold and silver, which have seen varying degrees of increases.
Bitcoin is a product of the 2008 financial crisis. In order to combat the uncontrolled inflation of fiat currencies, after more than 10 years of development, it has become one of the best tools for hedging fiat currencies. In the past two years, Bitcoin and US stock prices have been closely linked, and have been subject to the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, becoming a "tech stock" under macroeconomic regulation. But don't forget that Bitcoin's goal is not to become a "plaything" of Wall Street, but to truly change the existing financial system and allow ordinary people to have a say in this unequal social wealth distribution rule. For those who hold Bitcoin, don't be proud when the price goes up, and don't forget your original intention when the price goes down. This is the fundamental reason for holding the currency.
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