In the past 48 hours, the cryptocurrency market has experienced an astonishing 'emotional turnaround'. BTC has surged past $73,000, with a 24-hour increase of over 7%, sweeping away the gloom of February.
๐ Where does the power of this wave of 'violent surge' come from?
The institutions' 'thirsty' buying: On March 3 and 4, the U.S. spot ETF recorded nearly $400 million in net inflows. Funds from BlackRock and Fidelity have been like pumps, draining the liquidity from the market.
Positive signals from policy games: The CLARITY Act (cryptocurrency bill) pushed by the Trump administration has sent out positive signals. Although banks are still obstructing, this 'regulatory game' has instead become a catalyst for the bulls.
The 'fuel' for shorts: At the two key levels of $68,000 and $71,000, countless shorts were precisely liquidated, and their stop-loss buy orders became the catalyst for pushing up the coin price.
๐ Pouring cold water: Why can't we be blindly optimistic right now? (Professional data perspective)
Take a look at the on-chain data: Currently, as much as 43% of BTC supply is in an 'underwater' state.
What does this mean? Many who bought in at the high of $100,000 last year have not yet broken even. As the price approaches the previous heavy resistance zone of $75,000โ$78,000, these 'break-even sales' will create huge selling pressure.
Benjamin Cowen's warning: History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes. If the strong bounce in March can't firmly establish above $75,000, it is very likely to evolve into a massive 'lower high', and then initiate a deep correction in April.
๐ก Operation suggestion (not investment advice):
Don't chase the highs, wait for a pullback: The RSI for BTC has already entered the overbought zone. If it can't break through $74,000 with volume tonight, a pullback to $69,000 to find support is highly probable.
Focus on the 'catch-up' altcoins: As Bitcoin has grown tired, funds will flow into Solana and Hyperliquid, both of which have shown over 12% elasticity this week, and they are the sources of 'excess returns' for March.