Silvergate and Silicon Valley Bank caused a lot of fluctuations. The market fell 8% that day. In fact, there was nothing to panic about. Because I was seriously ill, I did not analyze it in time. At the same time, Silvergate suspended withdrawals on March 4. There are clues.
It didn't attract much attention at the time, but there was really no need to pay attention to it, because Silvergate's capital volume was only 1 billion U.S. dollars. Even if it were all reduced to zero, it would not cause any trouble to the banking system. This morning, the Federal Reserve's website stated that "the FDIC and the Federal Reserve plan to establish a fund to provide deposit support to banks." The impact of the incident has had no direct impact.
Looking back at the whole incident, there is really nothing much to say, but many people have come to ask, bank stocks have fallen so badly, and the US government has not made any move. If the bank goes bankrupt, it may trigger a global financial crisis, and there will be a big squat, and everyone will be in a panic. It is not this serious. To make a judgment, you should at least have some common sense in economics or finance.
First of all, as the world's economic hegemon, the United States has a capital volume of trillions of dollars. A problem of several billion dollars can be solved directly with money. Why should we let this spark spread like wildfire? We must kill it in the cradle. This little money is just a drizzle. Even if it collapses, the emergence of the pie was due to the human nature of the 2008 financial crisis. The scope will benefit the B circle, and it is inevitable that it will fall first and then rise.
Furthermore, such things will actually help reduce the number of interest rate hikes and speed up the process of not raising interest rates or even lowering interest rates. There will definitely be people in the United States who will push for this event. After all, it caused a sharp drop in U.S. stocks, which is actually a good thing.
In the end, it turned out that the real big boss, the Federal Reserve, stood up, the whole incident was over, and the market stabilized and began to rebound.
What is the future trend? In my personal opinion, the interest rate should be raised by 25%, and the bull market will be ignited by the Hong Kong conference on April 12, which will slowly continue until June. According to the rules, it will enter a deep bear market at the end of the year, but it is not easy to judge. The US interest rate hike and China's monetary easing rhythm are very consistent. If the interest rate hike ends early, there may be a slight retracement and a direct bull market. Most people know that 2025 will be a bull market, and they will build positions in advance. If this is the case, the bull market will arrive before the halving, so everyone should be prepared.
