Extremely IMPORTANT - today is the last day of February and for BTC - there is a downtrend risk on the monthly timeframe. I would not want this so much that the exit on the short stop would be at breakeven.

To avoid a downtrend on the monthly timeframe - today's day needs to close at approximately above $70,000, which seems fantastic.

The bad news will be that upon the signal of a downtrend, targets for declines will open up to, at most, $26,780.

This is considering that there is currently a downtrend, at most, on the 2-week timeframe, and the last target there remains at $54,654.

Even if a drop below $30,000 does not occur, the downtrend on the monthly timeframe will likely require several months of consolidation for a reversal.

It is noteworthy that in the previous cycle, the downtrend on the monthly timeframe in the bearish year of 2022 was only recorded in June. We are ahead of the curve. At that time, the trend change coincided with the marking of a potential low on the monthly timeframe. The low of the candle was $17,622. Despite the fact that later, during the FTX collapse, the low was rewritten to $15,476, this mark in June provided a good entry point.

Currently, the chances of experiencing a downtrend on the monthly timeframe are high. But, as past experiences show, for an asset like #BTC, this also represents a chance to start forming a bottom, which, if rewritten in spring, may not be significant. It is not about crashing to potential new targets.

The question regarding altcoins remains open. Our spot copy portfolio, assembled during the dump in October last year, today shows -64.31% (currently, only CHZ is in profit at +14%). This is not the maximum; the peak was reached on February 24. Although today many altcoins have rewritten their minima. On February 7, we already shared our thoughts on this portfolio. At that time, we suggested that the end of the cycle was not set. "Not the end of the cycle" still remains a forecast based on our market vision, not on indicator signals.

The current downtrend risk on the monthly timeframe for Bitcoin raises questions about the continuation of the cycle. However, the history of BTC incorrectly completing the psychological cycle ("cutting off" growth during the institutional phase and not allowing for euphoria and crowd madness for the bull run) is unsettling.