BTC

Over the weekend, Bitcoin has formed an ascending right triangle structure. This morning, Bitcoin broke through the resistance level. If the correction does not break the 36,800 support, then we can see the 38,000 resistance level being tested again. If the price fails to fall below the 38,000 resistance level and accumulates momentum, we can see 40,000 in the medium term.

News Analysis

1. The active supply of Bitcoin and Ethereum has hit a record low in the past year.

2. Bitcoin supporter Javier Milei finally won the Argentine presidential election. It is reported that Javier Milei has made relevant remarks in public interviews many times. After being elected president, one of his important goals was to stop the inflation of the Argentine peso and the continuous reduction of people's wealth. Milei tried to abolish the peso and the central bank and use the US dollar as legal currency.

3. The BitVol (Bitcoin volatility) index launched by financial index company T3 Index and Bitcoin options trading platform LedgerX rose to 65.73 yesterday, a daily increase of 1.58%.

4. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will postpone its decision on the Global X spot Bitcoin ETF to December 22 and set a comment period for the public to comment on the proposal within the next 35 days. At the same time, the SEC will postpone its decision to approve the Franklin Templeton Bitcoin ETF until early 2024.

Data analysis

Exchange reserves: 2,043,844, an increase of 9,780 from yesterday;

ahr999 Hoarding Index: 0.7631 (Note: below 0.45 is the bottom-fishing range);

BTC bubble index: -7.1813, in a low oscillation range, suitable for buying and hoarding coins;

MVRV: 1.7872. Compared with the data of the past three years, the curve dropped sharply (not fluctuating) to below 0.9 during the bear market, which is the time to buy the bottom; (refer to 2022/06/18 and 2022/11/09);

The current biggest pain point price for BTC option delivery: 37000

BTC current contract holdings: The holdings show that the current holdings have increased slightly compared to yesterday, and the total value has increased significantly.

Ratio of long to short positions held by large investors: long positions are dominant, the ratio has risen slightly compared with yesterday, and is still at an average high level this month.

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ETH

ETH stopped falling at the lower boundary of the descending channel over the weekend, then moved out of the rising wedge and broke through. If the callback does not break the 1995 support, we can see that the 2030 pressure level will be tested again. If it fails to fall at the 2030 pressure level and accumulates momentum, it is expected to break through the upper boundary of the descending channel in the medium term.

News Analysis

1. The whale address starting with 0x828, which is responsible for the ETH breakthrough, repurchased 9,131 ETH today, with an average price of 1,971 USD.

2. According to MetaTrust Alert monitoring, the crypto quantitative company Kronos Research was attacked and lost 13,007 ETH, worth approximately US$25 million.

3. In the past 10 days, a certain address has transferred a total of 52,435 ETH to Binance and OKX, and then withdrawn 102.58 million U from Binance and OKX.

4. Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart posted on social media that Fidelity has submitted an application for an Ethereum spot ETF to the U.S. SEC, becoming the seventh applicant for an Ethereum spot ETF. The ETF will be listed on Cboe.

Data analysis

Exchange reserves: 14,381,229, a decrease of 81,714 from yesterday;

ETH 2.0 pledged: 32,059,987, an increase of 38,252 from yesterday;

Total gas consumption: 107.8131, an increase of 0.4195 from yesterday;

Stablecoins

Exchange reserves: 16.60483 billion, with negligible increase or decrease compared with yesterday;

The current biggest pain point price for ETH option delivery: 1950

ETH current contract holdings: The holdings show that the current holdings have increased slightly compared to yesterday, and the total value has increased slightly.

Ratio of long to short positions held by large investors: long positions dominate, and the ratio rises slightly.

Altcoin market analysis

IN

The trend line and support level have been broken, and then pulled back with the market, and the strong upward trend has ended. If you have a profit, just take the profit and don't pay attention to it later.

VIB

If you have positions, continue to hold them. The first target is around 0.125, and the second target is around 0.15.

MEME

The unilateral upward trend has ended. If it fails to break through 0.0318, short-term positions can be closed for profit. Long-term positions can be ignored.

ORDI

It has received support at the lower boundary of the ascending channel. If it does not break the channel, it is expected to reach the upper boundary, around 31.

IOTA

For medium to long term investment targets, the trend at the weekly level has not changed. Just buy low when it is above 0.14. We remain optimistic about the future.

DYDX

The weekend adjustment did not fall below the 3.0 support. Those who have positions can continue to hold them, and those who do not have positions can build positions around 3.4/3.3.

SUN

The weekend adjustment hit the 55 support level, but fortunately it was recovered and continued to remain strong. You can hold it along the trend line and sell it only when it falls below.

Today's focus

02:45 Bank of England Governor Bailey delivered a speech