CoinVoice has recently learned that, according to the latest market insights, research and brokerage firm K33 indicates that the current Bitcoin market structure, derivative positions, and ETF fund flows are highly similar to the late stages of the bear market in 2022, suggesting a possible long-term consolidation rather than a rapid rebound. K33's research director Vetle Lunde stated that their proprietary indicators show a 'striking similarity' between the current situation and September and November 2022 (close to the bear market bottom). However, historical experience suggests that market bottoms are often accompanied by prolonged consolidation, with an average 90-day return rate of only about 3% in similar environments. Data shows that Bitcoin has fallen nearly 28% since January, with the funding rate remaining negative for 11 consecutive days, and open interest dropping below 260,000 BTC, with long positions being liquidated. Spot trading volume has decreased by 59% week-on-week, and futures open interest has fallen to a four-month low. On the institutional side, CME traders are relatively inactive, Bitcoin ETP holdings have decreased by 103,113 BTC since the peak in October of last year, but 93% of peak exposure remains, indicating that institutions are mainly reducing exposure rather than completely exiting the market. The Fear and Greed Index recently touched a historic low of 5, but Lunde pointed out that the average 90-day return for purchases made during extreme fear periods is only 2.4%, far lower than the 95% during extreme greed periods, suggesting that fear cannot reliably indicate a strong rebound. He expects Bitcoin to consolidate for a long time in the range of $60,000 to $75,000, with the current entry point being attractive, but patience is required. [Original link]
