First, always look at the weekly and daily charts only, and don’t look at the periods below the daily line (for the mid-term);

Second, only use moving averages, trend lines, necklines, false swings, and retracements, and ignore everything else;

Third, the total position should not exceed 50%, and the position of a single product should not exceed 30%;

Fourth, try to open a position. If it is wrong, stop loss; if it is right, increase the position.

One more point to add: It is better to trade in the original direction and get trapped only once in the end, rather than trying to catch small rebounds and get trapped every time.

02

In fact, it is not difficult to find a good opportunity for trading, but it is difficult to use the opportunity well. I think the position is right, but I can't hold it. There are several reasons:

One is that the position is too large, and once there is a fluctuation, it cannot withstand it and has to escape;

Second, the position for opening a position has no advantage. As soon as the position is opened, it encounters a rebound and is squeezed out;

Third, there is no basis for setting closing positions, and people check the market every day and trade in and out emotionally;

Fourth, they cannot see the direction and enter and exit based on their assumptions.

03

I suggest that you only keep four moving averages on your chart: 300-day, 150-day, 75-day, and 30-day, and always trade in the direction of the 30-day and 75-day moving averages.

As long as the direction of the moving average is clear, open a position when the price is close to the 30-day and 75-day moving averages, and close the position only when the trend line and neckline of each band are broken; the position is always less than 30%; only when the trend line, neckline and moving average are broken and confirmed at the same time, change the direction of trading.

In addition, positions should be built in batches. If you are wrong, you should escape in time. If you are right, you should gradually increase your position and hold the position patiently until the price breaks through the trend line and neckline before closing the position. Also, don't worry about the fundamentals and the price level, just trade with the trend.

04

I will give you a formula. If you understand it, you will definitely make a lot of money:

Investment profit and loss = opportunity success rate × opportunity position rate × position profit and loss rate.

To explain: you must always ensure that your success rate when entering the market is greater than 50%, so you must build positions by following the trend + pullback; you must ensure that your position when you make money is greater than your position when you lose money, so you must increase your position when you make money, and never increase your position when you lose money; you must ensure that the extent of profit is greater than the extent of loss, so you must ensure that you can stop losses in time and let profits run.

05

Several rules for investment transactions:

Avoid being impatient: Do not act rashly without reasonable conditions for opening or closing a position;

First point: Generally speaking, when you can't see the direction - that is, the price is in a convergent pattern - you should look at the weekly and monthly lines, and try to build a position along the edge of the pattern in the original direction. If the pattern breaks through in the same direction, add to the position; if it breaks in the opposite direction, reverse the position. This is clear and easier to operate. Try not to operate in both directions, or you will be exhausted and dare not do it when it really breaks through.

Second point: Never judge the direction has changed easily at any time. In other words, it is better to follow the original direction and not to change the trading easily. Because the real change of direction is actually very rare, and it is estimated that it only accounts for 20% of the earliest trading opportunities. The rest are opportunities to follow the trend. Why should we give up the opportunities with high probability and seize the opportunities with low probability?

The third point: A good attitude is not something that can be obtained out of thin air. It must be cultivated. This cultivation does not refer to chanting sutras, but to practice - you must constantly cultivate your feelings through transactions and summarizing both positive and negative experiences. This must take two or three years. When your method becomes your habit and character, your attitude will naturally be good. If your attitude has not become your habit and character, if you are still talking about the importance of attitude, then it is certain that your attitude is not good.

06

Let’s talk about a failed trade using sugar as an example.

Failed trading, in the final analysis, is due to failure to respect the market. This is reflected in:

First, they do not pay attention to the trend of the market price itself, but instead wishfully believe that the market will go in a certain direction based on their own positions. When the market goes against them, they not only do not correct their mistakes, but defend themselves with all kinds of ridiculous reasons. In fact, the market is always a possibility. Our position building is just a judgment of the possibility.

If you make a wrong judgment, you should leave instead of sticking to your own opinion.

I have made a lot of money in both long and short positions on sugar. After the price retreated, I also established a long position. But when the market told me that the price entered a state of volatility, I no longer insisted on long or short positions, but resolutely closed the long position, lost a little money, and switched to a trading idea of ​​shorting in the range. This idea is still effective today.

Second, they do not pay attention to the market trend, but trade based on the sayings of the main force, the banker, etc. In fact, any behavior of the main force is reflected in the price, so why do we need to predict it? They even bring up Rogers to make a fuss.

Think about it, no one's words are absolute truth; even if they are absolute truth, there is still a question of how to operate. Even a correction in a bull market can kill people. It's still the same sentence: whether it's the main force or Lao Luo, they all have to be tested by the market. The market moves faster and more real than Lao Luo, so why should we go far away and trust our ears instead of our eyes?

Third, when a trade is wrong, people always use the excuse that the long-term trend has not changed. In fact, since futures are margin trading, the risks and benefits are magnified tenfold. So even if you can see the long-term trend clearly, if you don’t avoid short-term risks, then a callback will kill you. What’s the point of talking about long-term? This is a bit like a saying in the stock market: short-term becomes long-term, and long-term becomes contribution. The stock market can still leave you some money, but if you play futures like that, you will have nothing left.

Fourth, they do not understand the principles of game theory. The essence of futures trading is to lose small amounts when you lose, win big amounts when you win, and try to increase the proportion of winning times.

No one, including Lao Luo, can get it right every time. If it is right, we should expand the fruits of victory; if it is wrong, we should escape quickly. But some people think that those who know how to trade futures must be right every time. My trading success rate is between 60% and 70%, but it does not prevent me from making money. I was wrong about sugar as well.

It doesn't matter, just change it. I'm afraid that they are wrong but still want to save face, refuse to correct it, and then blindly call for other varieties. In fact, this approach can only deceive those who have not entered the door. For those who have some professional qualities, it just adds a little joke. #交易理念 #技术分析