As of February 2026:

– The U.S. budget deficit was approximately $95 billion, down 26% compared to the same period.

– U.S. customs duties in the first four months of fiscal year 2026 (starting from October 2025) reached $124 billion, an increase of over 300%.

The short-term picture seems brighter.

But the big question is: how sustainable is it?

1. HOW DO U.S. CUSTOMS DUTIES HELP THE BUDGET BREATHE EASIER?

Specifically for January 2026:

– U.S. customs duties reached $30 billion

The entire previous fiscal year 2025:

– Record budget revenue of 5.235 billion USD

– Net import tax skyrocketed to 195 billion USD

Clearly, the retaliatory tariff policy from 04/2025 has created a very rapid budget revenue effect.

In the short term:

– Deficit narrowed by 17%

– The government has more fiscal space

– Increase trade negotiation positions

2. BUT THE BUDGET STRUCTURE IS STILL FRAGILE

The big issue is not in revenue, but in expenditure:

– Total deficit for 4 months remains at 697 billion USD

– Interest on debt for 4 months reached 426.5 billion USD, an increase of nearly 9%

With total public debt of the US around 38.6 trillion USD (over 120% GDP):

– Interest expenses are becoming one of the largest expenditures

– If interest rates remain high, interest costs could exceed 1,000 billion USD/year in the coming years

Tariffs help reduce short-term pressure.

But it does not address the structural debt problem.

3. LEGAL RISKS AND POLICY UNCERTAINTY

A lawsuit to the Supreme Court is challenging the legal basis of US tariffs.

If rejected:

– The US government may have to refund hundreds of billions USD

– Fiscal benefits are reversed

– Financial markets face unexpected shocks

Delays in decisions add uncertainty for businesses and investors.

4. GLOBAL IMPACT IS NOT SMALL

Tariffs are not just a story about the US budget.

But it also leads to international consequences, including:

– Increased import costs → inflationary pressure

– Global GDP could drop by 0.5 – 1.5% depending on the level of retaliation

– Supply chains restructuring to Mexico, India, ASEAN

– EU, China impose retaliatory tariffs, affecting US exports

The trend of 'fragmented trade' is becoming increasingly evident.

US tariffs at this time are like an adrenaline shot:

– Help the budget remain vigilant in the short term

– But cannot cure the chronic debt disease

When interest costs exceed new revenue, the personal band-aid cannot replace surgery.

Conclusion:

US tariffs have proven effective in quickly and clearly generating budget revenue. But:

– The deficit remains large

– Public debt is still ballooning

– Interest rates continue to rise

The short term is a bright spot in fiscal policy. The long term remains a puzzle of debt and growth.

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