七月哈哈

US employment suddenly went negative, and BTC is already popping champagne.

In July, the number of US jobs didn’t increase—it actually dropped by 23,000.

What did the market expect? An increase of 80,000. Instead, reality hit you with the opposite direction. That’s pretty awkward.

Does the Federal Reserve finally have a reason to cut rates? After all, employment is starting to loosen. If the economy continues to cool, then rate-cut expectations should—at least in theory—start to build.

For risk assets like BTC, once liquidity expectations improve, you know what happens—sentiment could start getting hype again.

But when I looked closely, I found it’s not that simple.
Unemployment actually fell to 4.1%. Other employment data also didn’t deteriorate to the point of “the US economy is going to crash.” Job openings only fell slightly, layoff plans were reduced, and hiring plans even increased a bit.

Based on bank-account data, a US bank analyzed that employment in July might actually have been fairly good—especially for low-income groups, where both employment and after-tax wages improved.

Even more and more people are starting to do gig work and part-time jobs.

So right now, the US job market is kind of funny:

Nonfarm looks bad, but the other data isn’t that bad. That makes the market feel really uncomfortable.

Because for the crypto market, the most comfortable scenario is actually:
The economy cools gradually, but doesn’t truly enter a recession; inflation eases slowly, and the Fed starts cutting rates; liquidity comes back, and BTC keeps climbing.

$BTC #美国初请失业金人数维持20万以下

Tom Lee’s latest take: he believes the S&P 500 has a chance to hit 7900–8000 points this month, and in the next phase, what’s truly worth paying attention to isn’t just the U.S. stock mega-cap “Seven” and software stocks. He also places Ethereum in the same lineup.

At first, I thought he was saying that ETH would outperform and lift the U.S. stocks, but on closer inspection, that’s not what he meant. What he’s trying to convey is that AI investment is still ongoing, and the development of the Ethereum ecosystem could also help drive continued benefits for related industry chains like compute power, storage, and semiconductors. So he remains bullish on the AI main theme and also on how ETH performs after this.

In fact, the market lately also seems to be giving off the same vibe. AI hasn’t gone out, and money for the ETH ETF has started flowing back again. There are also signs of a rebound in on-chain activity. Clearly, sentiment isn’t as bearish as it was before. As long as liquidity remains, emotions are more likely to keep building momentum.

Tom Lee has long been known on Wall Street as an optimist. He’s called targets that were quite ambitious before. This time, he’s calling for 8000 points. Whether the market ultimately buys into it will depend on upcoming corporate earnings, economic data, and the Fed’s stance.

My own view is that the biggest change in the market right now isn’t about who will go up, but that capital is starting to look for the next main theme again. AI is still that main theme, and ETH is drawing increasing attention from more funds—this is definitely a positive signal. But in a bull market, expectations can push prices higher; what ultimately determines how far the rally can go is whether there’s continued net inflow of capital.

So I’m not pessimistic about the direction. But if we really want to break to new highs, we’ll still need to see whether the ETF, on-chain activity, and incremental capital can keep the momentum going. For those of us old “whales-in-the-weed,” following the money matters more than following sentiment.

$ETH $SOL

Can one cat pull out a nearly $100 million market cap?

The meme market is absolutely wild.

On Robinhood, a meme coin called CASHCAT has been listed—this coin actually has nothing to do with Robinhood itself.

It just borrowed a joke: Robinhood’s founder once said that the company was originally almost named Cash Cat before changing to Robinhood. And then someone turned that story into a meme coin.

As soon as the news hit, market sentiment was instantly ignited. In the 24 hours before launch, CASHCAT surged by as much as nearly 78%, but after topping out it quickly fell back. Even so, it’s still valued at close to $100 million, and trading volume remains strong.

Now the meme market isn’t just trading dogs and cats anymore—it’s trading consensus and stories. A brand tidbit, a meme image, even the buzz from a community—anything can become a reason for capital to chase. As long as the emotion is still there, the price may keep pushing higher.

But on the flip side, this is also the biggest risk of memes. Whether a project has revenue or a product matters little; it mostly depends on whether the market has people willing to pass the baton. Once the hype fades and funds pull out, gains that come fast often fall even faster.

Right now, the whole market has entered a fairly clear stage. Capital increasingly loves chasing hotspots: a single catalyst or a listing announcement can fully pump up sentiment. But if there’s no new topic to carry the momentum, once the hype cools off, prices can just as easily give back gains quickly.

$HOOD

$SPCX 8 On June 6, the first batch of restricted shares will be officially released from lock-up.

The size of shares allowed to be sold—based on stock prices at the end of July—would theoretically be worth nearly US$99 billion.

Even though it doesn’t mean all of these shares will be dumped, and even though Musk himself isn’t on this list, early investors and executives have been holding their breath for more than a decade. Now they finally have a chance to cash out and secure their gains. Selling a bit is actually quite normal.

I think what really needs attention isn’t who sells, but whether the market can absorb it.

When SpaceX first went public, the float was already very small—less than 5% of total shares. On top of that, index funds have been steadily buying, so the available shares have stayed relatively tight. That’s why the stock price has had something of a supply-demand imbalance. After the unlock, there will be more and more shares available in the market. If new capital can’t keep up, then stock price pressure will naturally follow.

This is actually quite similar to crypto. When many projects are booming, people believe consensus is invincible, sentiment is at its peak, and everyone thinks it can still go higher. But only when large unlocks arrive—along with institutional exits and early investors taking profits—does the market truly learn what real selling pressure feels like.

In the short term, I think SpaceX will likely still feel uncomfortable, especially since there are several more rounds of unlocks after that, with the next milestones stretching into December. Capital will need time to digest these shares. Of course, if AI and space-related business continue to exceed expectations, or if market risk appetite warms up again, there’s also a chance for a renewed uptrend.

The story can go on and on—but it’s capital that ultimately determines the price.

#SpaceX9.115亿股周四解禁

Oh my god, big moves—doesn’t Musk want to send computing power to the sky?

He announced that SpaceX’s future AI chips will exclusively use NVIDIA’s solutions, and he’s also preparing to move AI data centers into space.

Previously, we thought data centers were built on the ground. Up to the sky?

If this direction really works, then NVIDIA might capture not only today’s AI server market, but also the future “space AI infrastructure” pie.

Not rockets—but it already has real operations:
Starlink has users, satellites are up in the sky, and revenue is growing.

This is actually the biggest difference from many concept projects.

In the future, the AI race will definitely keep getting more competitive, but money won’t chase every story forever—eventually it will come back to fundamentals.

So my take is:

SpaceX’s imagination is indeed huge, and NVIDIA may continue to benefit.

“Every time it surges, it makes you feel like this time is different.” So in the end, whether it’s making money or losing money is also down to a single moment of decision for us retail investors.
$NVDAB $SPCX #SpaceX财报前涨9.8% #SpaceXAI支出拖累首份财报 #SpaceX将公布Q2财报

The market will educate those who are never satisfied

Anyway, I’ve been scared into it

Now I’d rather earn a little less than be woken up in the middle of the night by liquidation text messages.

These days I’ve been researching the Babylon and Aave V4 testnets. My biggest takeaway is just one line:
In the past, I was afraid of platforms; now I should be more afraid of myself.

This TBV design is indeed very elegant.
BTC stays on the Bitcoin mainnet—no custody, no private keys shared. The risk of running away is basically eliminated.

But I also deeply understand that code won’t go easy on me just because I’m an old user.

Once LTV drops below the safety threshold, pre-signed transactions kick in immediately. The liquidator coordinates with zero-knowledge proofs to complete the process. The BTC you see will quickly become collateral in someone else’s eyes.

Throughout the whole process, there’s no human operation.

And there’s no regret medicine.

So I’ve always believed that for people who play with collateralized lending, the most important thing isn’t figuring out how to borrow more—it’s figuring out how to die less.

My habits haven’t changed.
If I can borrow 70%, I borrow at most 40%.

When the market is good, you think you’re being conservative. When the market turns bad, you realize that this is what it means to leave a lifeline for your future self.

The second thing is early warning.

I won’t wait for the protocol to tell me that danger is here before I act. Instead, I set my own red lines in advance. When there’s still some distance from danger, I start preparing additional funds for top-ups. When it gets closer, I repay directly—I don’t gamble on luck with the market.

Can’t gamble, can’t gamble.

#Baby $BABY @BabylonLabs_io

Why would Trump ban Chacha melon seeds—was it because there’s no cola flavor? Or is he afraid Americans will snack on melon seeds and get overheated?

On August 3, the U.S. added Chinese companies such as Chacha and Simin to its sanctions list. Netizens are making jokes, wondering if the U.S. is worried that U.S. troops might crack their teeth on melon seeds.

But this round of sanctions isn’t really targeting just a few bags of melon seeds.

Chacha’s dependence on the U.S. market is almost negligible. In 2025, overseas revenue accounted for less than 9% of total revenue, and the U.S. share isn’t even disclosed separately in its financial reports. What truly supports the company is the domestic market.

Look at the industry chain, too. Chacha has built a large number of sunflower bases in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu. It doesn’t just source raw materials—it also provides seeds, technology, and contract farming arrangements, partnering with more than 20,000 planting households. This is an entire industry chain, not something as simple as just buying and selling melon seeds.

So, the damage from the U.S. sanctions this time is actually limited. It won’t affect American consumers, nor will it put Chacha in serious trouble. It’s more like the U.S. is sending a political signal.

What’s truly worth paying attention to is something else.

More and more Chinese consumer brands are no longer following the old model of “made in China, exported worldwide.” Instead, they’re building supply chains globally. For example, Chacha has set up a plant in Thailand, while Simin has already acquired factories in the United States and produces and sells locally.

Once these global supply chains mature, the effectiveness of many of the U.S.’s traditional sanctions will keep weakening.

This time, what the U.S. is trying to block isn’t melon seeds—it’s the new supply-chain system that Chinese companies are forming.

Even more interestingly, when the sanctions took effect, Chacha actually released a forecast of its earnings: in the first half of the year, net profit was expected to increase by more than 170% year over year, and the chairman has continued to buy additional shares.

So I think the biggest significance of this is not whether someone can or can’t sell melon seeds, but that the global supply chain is being reshuffled.

In the future, companies won’t just compete on products. The one who can build supply chains worldwide will have stronger resilience to risks.

The market will never stop just because of a sanctions notice. The melon seeds that should be sold will keep being sold, and the factories that should be opened will keep opening. What really determines how far a company can go is still its own industrial chain and global layout capabilities.

Eat Chacha while keeping an eye on the market.
$AAPLB $NVDAB $DOGE

BitMine has put another 150,000-plus ETH into staking. Now, it has staked a total of over 5.06 million ETH, accounting for more than 87% of its holdings, worth nearly $9.4 billion.

This isn’t just a matter of earning simple staking yield—it’s real money betting that Ethereum will have a big run over the next few years.

To be honest, if all they wanted was to trade in and out for a swing, who would dare lock almost 90% of their position? If the market suddenly turns, you can’t really get out quickly enough. So the fact that they can do this in such a big way essentially means they believe institutional capital will keep flowing in, and that Ethereum still has even more room to grow.

Recently, you can actually see some signals. The inflows into ETH ETFs have started to perform noticeably better than BTC, and more and more traditional capital seems to be paying attention to Ethereum. It feels like market sentiment is gradually shifting.

I think what’s worth paying attention to now isn’t just how much BitMine bought—it's whether more institutions will follow. If more and more companies start treating ETH as a long-term reserve asset, Ethereum’s valuation logic may truly change.

The market never takes off because of a single piece of news, but every major trend is often built up gradually from these seemingly insignificant signals. As for whether this is a super cycle—no one dares to draw a conclusion yet. But institutions have already started placing their bets. The rest is for time to prove it.

$ETH $BTC

Bitcoin is going up and down around the $64,000 mark

Ethereum is even worse off—it’s still grinding back and forth around $1,800.

The market isn’t short of money; it’s just that everyone feels like they’re waiting, and nobody dares to make a move easily.

Right now, the biggest variables are still two: one is the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, and the other is whether the institutions holding Bitcoin are still selling.

On the Trump side, it’s a back-and-forth—talk of negotiations one moment, then tough talk the next. The news cycle keeps flipping, and market sentiment follows suit, surging up and down.

On the other side, Bitcoin treasury companies like MicroStrategy are also trimming holdings and cashing out. That still puts some pressure on the market, to a certain extent.

However, it’s not all bad news. Based on the data, in the past 24 hours, more than $200 million was liquidated. And importantly, shorts were wiped out more than longs, which suggests some people were taking contrarian short positions—and getting educated for it.

More crucially, as Bitcoin’s price has inched up, open interest has also been rising. That indicates new capital is slowly entering the market, not just old players swapping positions with each other.

The stock market on this side is quite strong—Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq have all hit fresh highs.

Under the old logic, when risk assets rise together, the crypto market should perform too.

But the reality is that Bitcoin is still lagging a bit behind the pace, and funds are clearly more cautious.

In plain terms, what the market lacks most right now isn’t a story—it’s truly incremental capital that’s bold enough to rush in.

On-chain data shows that overall sell pressure has already dropped to a historically accumulation-phase level. From historical experience, this kind of area often appears near the end of a bear market. Over the long run, the risk-reward ratio should become more and more comfortable. But that doesn’t mean the bottom has been confirmed.

So calling that a bull market is back at this point, I think it’s still a bit early.

As for Ethereum, some analysts believe that as long as it can hold above $1,800, there’s a chance to break through $2,000—and even see $2,300. I think this move isn’t impossible, but the prerequisite is that market sentiment needs to cooperate. If Bitcoin keeps ranging, and Ethereum tries to run independently into a bull phase, that’s actually not easy.

Making money is nerve-wracking—so hard.

The problem is not only is it nerve-wracking, it still doesn’t make money. That’s even harder~!
$BTC $ETH

Honestly, the market isn’t quite the same as it was a few years ago.
Back then, once you opened a group, it was all questions like: "When will it surge like crazy?" and "Can it still multiply a few times?"
Now I’m seeing more and more people discussing something else.
So much BTC just lying in wallets—doesn’t that feel a bit of a waste?
After all, BTC is no longer some small asset.
With such a huge global scale, if its only purpose is to be held and wait for appreciation, it feels like something is missing.
I’ve had a picture in my mind for a while.
Many people treat BTC like gold bars in a safe—lock it up, put it away, and don’t touch it.
It’s safe, sure, but it never participates in creating new value.
Recently I came across the views of Charles d'Haussy, CEO of the dYdX Foundation, who said that BTC is very suitable as collateral because market depth, liquidity, and consensus are strong enough.
I think the key isn’t really that statement by itself.
It’s that more and more industries are starting to assume by default that BTC can take on more financial functions.
Of course, the biggest contradiction in all of this has never changed.
Everyone wants to improve the capital efficiency of BTC, but nobody wants to sacrifice its most important safety.
That’s also why Babylon’s Trustless Bitcoin Vaults made me take a closer look.
At least it attempts to answer one question: is there a way to keep BTC’s underlying properties unchanged, while still enabling it to be used in more real-world applications.
My own view is pretty simple.
BTC’s real growth shouldn’t depend only on round after round of bull markets.
The real incremental change is that more and more scenarios start actively needing BTC.
When it shifts from being hoarded for the long term to being used for the long term—that, I think, is the most exciting change for the whole ecosystem.
#Baby $BABY @BabylonLabs_io

I just saw a tweet from MicroStrategy, and the comments section is already blowing up.

Someone even translated it into one sentence: “We sold 1,638 BTC.”

While it’s more like a joke, it also reflects that people in the market are a bit on edge.

Whenever Strategy posts anything about credit, financing, or models, the first reaction from everyone is: “Did they sell coins again?” “Are they under pressure with their funding chain?” The emotion spreads even faster than the news itself.

From the perspective of small retail investors like us, this market really is quite confusing right now. On one side, more and more institutions are treating BTC as part of their balance sheets. All kinds of financing, bond issuance, and credit instruments are getting more and more sophisticated. It looks like Bitcoin is slowly being integrated into the traditional financial system—this is a long-term positive. It suggests it’s not just a speculative asset, but that it’s genuinely starting to have financial attributes.

But there are also worries. The macro environment still isn’t very calm. Global liquidity hasn’t moved into a particularly loose phase, and market sentiment often swings back and forth due to policy, geopolitical events, or economic data. BTC is a high-volatility asset, and once a credit model is built on assumptions about a certain price and volatility, if the market deviates from those assumptions, the risk gets magnified quickly.

So I think this tweet is essentially telling the market: “Our credit model has a basis.”

But what the market hears is a different message: “Are you planning to move BTC?” That’s the most real state of the market right now—everyone is already a bit on edge, being tossed around by all kinds of bad news and good news.

That said, over the years, Strategy has been steadily accumulating BTC all the way, so it has deeply bound itself to Bitcoin.

Their biggest advantage is that the consensus is strong and the execution is strong, and the community’s influence is big enough—every time they speak, it affects market sentiment.

But conversely, this level of binding is also a risk. Once the cost of financing rises, the credit environment tightens, or BTC experiences a major swing, the market will amplify its concerns about them.

Don’t chase or panic-sell because of a single tweet. And don’t lie awake worrying just because someone in the comments said “we sold 1,638 BTC.” In the short term, the market always looks at sentiment; in the long term, it’s still about capital and trends.
$BTC

August 3 (Reuters) — American Bitcoin, supported by two of U.S. President Donald Trump’s sons, announced on Monday, reporting a swing to a loss in the second quarter due to a decline in the price of bitcoin.

As geopolitical tensions intensified, risk-averse sentiment grew in the market, prompting investors to reduce allocations to risk assets and putting broad pressure on cryptocurrency prices.

The key points from this earnings report are as follows:

1. At the end of the second quarter, the company held more than 8,000 bitcoins, up 14% from the previous quarter.

2. The company continued to increase investment in its bitcoin mining business. In the second quarter, it mined about 932 bitcoins, setting a record high for a single quarter.

3. From April to June this year, the price of bitcoin fell cumulatively by more than 11%.

4. CEO Mike Ho said: “Despite headwinds in the bitcoin market in the second quarter, we remain focused on doing what we can control.”

5. The company posted a net loss of $57.2 million in the second quarter, compared with a net profit of $3.4 million in the same period last year.

6. Second-quarter revenue was approximately $67 million, up from $30.3 million in the same period last year.

Despite a sharp year-over-year increase in revenue, the value of the company’s bitcoin assets was affected as the bitcoin price fell noticeably in the second quarter, ultimately leading to an overall performance that turned to a loss.

$BTC

They even say $BTC is “more stable” than the South Korean stock market?

This year, things over in South Korea have been completely crazy. It’s being propped up almost entirely by two chip giants—Samsung $SAMSUNG and SK hynix $SKHY . They’ve basically turned the whole market into an AI-leveraged gambling den. And South Korean retail investors are ruthless too—going all-in on leveraged ETFs. That’s why the South Korean stock market has triggered circuit breakers multiple times this year. It’s up-limit one moment, down-limit the next—more thrilling than a roller coaster.

Meanwhile, our BTC? This year it’s been falling like taking the stairs down. It’s drifted lower the whole time, sliding from over 100,000 to more than 60,000.

Bloomberg says our BTC has “low volatility.” That’s not to say it isn’t dropping—it’s just that it’s cutting you out steadily. A little bleed every day: slow and steady, not hot or cold. On the data it looks “stable,” but the money in our accounts is actually being whittled away in a very real way. This kind of grind-down is more torturous than a sudden crash.

BTC is definitely a bit awkward right now. People used to think it was the most aggressive risk asset. But now all the capital has run off to trade AI stocks, and ETFs aren’t really seeing inflows either.

So you’re saying it’s not good anymore? Not necessarily. BTC’s biggest advantage is that consensus is still extremely strong. The community foundation is still there. As soon as the next hype wave returns, it can rally you back up at any time.

But its limitations are also obvious. After institutions move in, BTC is becoming more and more like a sidekick to U.S. stocks. Without fresh buyers coming in, all it can do is grind. For retail investors hoping to get rich overnight, it’s getting harder and harder. Risk hasn’t disappeared; if anything, the returns have become dull.

With this market, the South Korean stock market is going crazy and jumping around in a casino—while BTC is cutting into you with a dull knife.

And please don’t get fooled by these spooky stories about “being more stable than the stock market.” Control your position, control your position—keep your principal. Wait for the real opportunity to arrive, then go in!

A few days ago, I sat down with some friends who work on nodes and we went through the Babylon whitepaper. We got to the part about withdrawal review under extreme conditions, and I was honestly shocked. The protocol makes a hardcore guarantee: even if every node running the PoS chain all defect and team up to impose a shutdown—if you follow the rules, the BTC should still be unbonded/withdrawable. No getting blocked at all!

After mixing in this space for so many years, who doesn’t know what PoS chains are like? If the big node set collectively does evil, or the chain itself can’t produce a block, our assets are essentially just being held hostage. I originally assumed this was just another project’s hype. But once I dug deeper, I found out they’ve written the rules into Bitcoin’s mainnet using cryptography.

It’s like going to an arcade, putting your coins into the boss’s safe. Under the old rules, if the boss runs off with the money or locks up the place and shuts the door, you can only take the loss. Here’s where Babylon is impressive: it directly locks our coins behind its own tamper-proof “door” on-chain. In the arcade, what’s sitting there is just a digital counter. Even if the arcade burns down to ashes, you can still go back to your own home, turn the key, and retrieve the coins exactly as they were—no changes.

My argument is extremely simple: the safety of your exit doesn’t depend on whether that PoS chain lives or dies at all—it only depends on whether the Bitcoin network is reliable. It’s like wrapping risk assets with an unbeatable shield. Previously, participating in staking on a new chain was basically “using principal to earn interest.” With this mechanism, it directly exposes the key safety of the principal and separates it from the systemic risks of the new chain.

Going forward, when evaluating staking projects like this, don’t just listen to how grand the project team’s narrative is. Whether they can truly do: “the chain is broken, but the money is still there”—that is the toughest test of whether it’s real. This is the most genuine thought I have, and in the future I’ll evaluate things using this theory as well.
@BabylonLabs_io #baby $BABY
（Ad.Do Your Own Research.）

Painful non-farm payroll data. Remember when, on July 2nd, we got the June non-farm payroll numbers? Back then, new jobs only came in at 57,000—way below the expected 115,000! Well, the market basically went wild. People thought the Fed definitely wouldn’t dare to keep raising rates. BTC then absolutely ripped, shooting from around 62,000 to nearly 64,000—what a rush!

But this Friday’s July report… I think it’s going to be tricky. It’s probably not that easy to please. Right now, analysts are predicting new jobs of 85,000 to 88,000—almost double last month’s figure. You tell me, with the overall backdrop full of geopolitical conflicts and inflation, and employers are still hiring steadily—are they just here to drop the hammer on our crypto market?

If this employment data comes out looking really good, then those old Fed folks will have even more excuses to turn hawkish. Last week, three officials came out to support rate hikes. If Friday’s data is strong again, rate cuts are basically off the table. And even that looming “rate-hike sword” could come crashing down.

Look, a few days ago—on July 31—BTC even knelt first, dropping 3%. And the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has surged to the highest level since 2007. That suggests the old capital players who trade Treasuries were already betting on tightening.

This is really a double-edged sword: if Friday’s data keeps coming in “weak,” then rate-cut expectations will warm up again, and the big coin can definitely pump for a bit—that’s the crypto market’s unique emotional consensus and explosive momentum. When the sentiment hits, even a dog would fly. But if the data is “too solid,” or wage growth is too hot (inflation can’t be brought down), then we might genuinely get hit head-on.

Also, this report will be released on August 7, which is still a full 5 weeks before the Fed meeting on September 16. In the middle, there’s also CPI on August 12 to apply more pressure—too many variables.

Now BTC is no longer trading independently. It often gets led around by the Fed’s economic data swings. The risks are pretty real. Whether this Friday’s move sends us to the moon or straight into the ICU depends entirely on how the report looks.

Take care, everyone.
$BTC #CLARITY法案未列入周一参议院日程

On Sunday night, Brent crude oil plunged by 9% intraday—dropping from around $91 all the way to above $82!

Just because Trump’s big mouth started blowing hot air again, saying that Iran and several families in the Middle East asked him to stop it. On Monday afternoon, they’re set to hold a meeting and negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz!

So what happened? The plot thickened dramatically! Iran basically mocked Trump outright, calling him a “fool with only poor tactics,” and saying they never even asked him for anything!

So what the hell is this?! These past few years, while we’ve been playing with crypto and trading commodities, we’ve been getting slapped in the face every day by these politicians and macro headlines—first there’s a mouth-off battle, and oil prices and safe-haven assets surge; then they talk about reconciliation, and they instantly drop you into a deep pit. This chart right now is purely a “talk-driven market”!

The Middle East is indeed no joke. If the Strait of Hormuz is locked down, global shipping grinds to a halt, and safe-haven sentiment and consensus can ramp up instantly—money rushes in like crazy. But the risk level is just ridiculously nasty. It all depends on what big-country leaders say. Today they post something on social media and pump it up; tomorrow they’ll report a retaliatory attack—there’s basically no technical indicator at all.

The countdown to the U.S.-Iran understanding memo is coming fast. If the Monday negotiations are once again a back-and-forth, dodging and feinting, we still don’t know how long this slow bleed and pin-prick volatility will torment us.

In this situation, don’t force a bet on a breakout rally or keep stabbing for entries. Macro policy and geopolitics are like a dull blade hanging over your head—headline reversals happen faster than flipping through a book. Us retail traders have no inside information. We can’t outplay these political folks! Hold your chips steady, use lower leverage, control your hands, don’t chase highs at random—let’s wait until this round of headline news fully lands.

Tonight, are you buying the dip on oil prices and crypto prices? Drop a comment and chat in the comments section!
$CL $BZ

Your performance this year has been too bad—$NVDA . In past years, the first half was just casually outperforming the market index, but this year—so far—it’s only up 2%. It hasn’t even beaten the S&P 500’s 7% gain.

There’s a saying that once the earnings report drops on August 26, NVIDIA might really take off—skyrocket. The logic is pretty simple: in AI computing power, it’s still “hard currency.” All the big players are going on a buying spree for capacity. And the forward P/E ratio is only 21x right now, which makes it cheap—basically priced like an ordinary large-cap stock. If Q2 revenue breaks 100 and the Q3 guidance beats expectations, then this upswing is absolutely solid. I’d urge everyone to hurry and pick up shares on the cheap.

NVIDIA really does have strong fundamentals. In this wave of AI, compute power is a necessity. The “leather jacket yellow” GPUs are an industry-wide consensus as unbeatable—if the big companies aren’t buying it, then who would they buy? The fundamentals are still scorching hot. If the earnings report delivers a genuine upside surprise and really ramps up, it can absolutely rip a huge green candle in minutes and blow up the shorts.

But the risks are there too. If it can’t move higher this year, doesn’t that just mean the money is still hesitating? If the macro economy even gets a slight change in tone, or if the earnings guidance misses Wall Street’s picky expectations by even a tiny bit, it could turn into an immediate sell-off—bearish pressure. And that script of “good news being followed by bad news once it’s already out”—haven’t we retail investors been getting cut enough already?

On August 26, this big test—are you planning to set up early positions and wait for takeoff, or continue working and watching from the sidelines?
$NVDAB $NVDA.US

$BTC Since last year’s peak at 126,000, it was cut in half by 50%. The drawdown in a bear market is gradually becoming shallower: it fell 94% in 11 years, 86% in 13 years, 78% in 22 years, and so far this year it’s down only 54%. So some people think the selling pressure is easing, and a rebound is on the way.

The community’s “four-year halving” consensus for BTC is really like a mark burned into everyone’s mind. Even if it drops terribly, that emotion and belief in the community can’t be extinguished. Plus, the drawdown really does seem to be getting smaller now—it looks like there’s genuine confidence at the bottom.

But for a bigger part of people, the heart is both itchy and panicked.
Why do everyone feel so uneasy?

Because these analyses are all based on historical patterns. But can history really represent the future? Can today’s macro environment be the same as before? What if this time it doesn’t follow the script? A 50% cut looks like a discount, but if you try to buy in halfway down, the remaining 50% can still make you bleed.

So when you’re itching to buy the dip, you also end up second-guessing: is the bottom really in for real? If you buy the dip, you’re afraid it’ll keep dropping. If you don’t buy, you’re afraid your legs get crushed.

Brothers, right now are you lying flat and pretending to be dead, preparing to build positions in batches, or are you continuing to watch from the sidelines? Leave a comment—when there’s money, we all make it together.
$BTC