The US labor market for January turned out to be tougher than expected and it is not entirely clear why BTC reacted with growth to today's data. Along with the US Dollar Index DXY, by the way. With which it should have an inverse correlation.

Why DXY rose - this raises no questions. The bad news is that today's data deprives the markets of the prospect of "quick Fed support". That is, today's data, in theory, distances a softer regulatory policy - a strong labor market does not contribute to this. And it, judging by the data, is strong.

To the data:

- Change in employment in the non-farm sector: 130000 when the forecast was 66000 and the previous figure was 48000. Significantly above the forecast.

- Unemployment rate: 4.3% against a forecast of 4.4% and a previous figure of 4.4%. Below the forecast.

- Average hourly wage (compared to the same period last year) (year-on-year): 3.7% against a forecast of 3.6% and a previous figure of 3.7%. Slightly above the forecast.

- Labor force participation rate: 62.5% against a previous figure of 62.4%.

The U.S. economy continues to add jobs, especially in healthcare, social assistance, and construction. Demand for labor remains strong, even considering that in 2025, the average growth was weak.

AT THE SAME TIME, wages are not cooling off quickly enough. 3.7% year-on-year is a level that the Fed finds it difficult to call ideal for a confident return of inflation to target.

For the Fed's policy, a strong labor market means that it is not obliged to rush to lower the rate. And salaries slightly above expectations mean that inflation risks through services remain.

In total, the probability of an early rate cut, in theory, is decreasing, expectations may shift towards later dates or fewer cuts. However, of course, the new head of the Fed, who is expected to be Kevin Warsh, can make adjustments here.

But for now, such reports give the Fed the right to prolong the pause longer, and the markets will have to digest this. This sets the stage for more nervous trading and increased risk of local sell-offs, if markets begin to revise rate expectations negatively for them.

How the chart reacted to the news about #BTC - it has already been said, with growth. Which is currently difficult to explain as growth based on new macro data. We are leaning more towards a short squeeze scenario, but for now, the fact is the fact - for the first time in a day, the asset showed a steady uptrend on the 15-minute timeframe.