First, a little background: The SEC has been reluctant to approve Bitcoin spot ETFs for the past several years, but has approved Bitcoin futures ETFs. And cryptans are waiting for a spot ETF, because in this case the fund will buy real bitcoins (and not some candy wrappers) on exchanges and provoke a price increase.
Grayscale wanted to convert its world's largest Bitcoin fund into an ETF, but the SEC did not allow it for the same reason: the regulator was worried that it does not control the Bitcoin spot market and therefore there could be manipulation there. But he controls the futures market, and supposedly there will be no manipulation there.
Grayscale began to sue the SEC, yesterday there was the first meeting, and finally someone, namely the judges, asked the SEC a reasonable question: what is the difference between the futures price and the spot price if they are the same asset? Futures are a derivative of real Bitcoin that are traded on spot and their prices are identical 99.9% of the time. Where does the SEC think the gap might be?
So if the Commission cannot really explain its position, then we expect the ban on Bitcoin ETFs to be lifted and this product to be launched by a bunch of companies at once.
By the way, shares of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust reacted with an increase of 10%, reducing the discount to net asset value to 42%.
But also remember that if Grayscale converts its fund, which currently holds more than 600,000 BTC, into an ETF, then investors will be able to withdraw bitcoins from the fund and sell them on the market. And, given the discount in the share price, they will do this. This could put pressure on the price of the cryptocurrency.
