Bitcoin's short-term trend has become difficult to predict, and the current price is around $43,500, with many short positions waiting to be eaten up. In order to digest these shorts, the price of Bitcoin was pulled up yesterday, but then fell, and now it has returned to a sideways state.
On the URPD indicator of Bitcoin, there is no obvious change in the trend, and the current price is around $42,500. This indicator is between $41,000 and $44,000. Bitcoin's buying is still very active, which is one of the reasons why Bitcoin is unlikely to fall below $40,000 in the short term.
There are many factors supporting the rise in Bitcoin prices, and there have been similar situations in the past. While some people see this as strong belief, it is unwise to make predictions too early in this dynamic due to the short trading time of Bitcoin spot ETFs.
When the price of Bitcoin was trading sideways between $42,000 and $43,000, the market capitalization share was also trading sideways at a low level. Some funds moved from Bitcoin to altcoins, and the performance of some altcoins looked good. However, judging from the funding rate heat map, it will take time for the market to recover. Although the market is gradually recovering, more shocks are still continuing. The previous large-scale liquidation has been confirmed on the liquidation map.
Larry Fink, CEO of Blackrock, made it clear in an interview that tokenizing as many financial assets as possible is their next major goal. In this process, Blackrock will play a central role, especially in the tokenization of real-world assets RWA. A key link is Blackrock's cooperation with JPMorgan Chase, where they have successfully tokenized some assets and completed the first transaction with Barclays.
At present, the cryptocurrency market still faces many challenges, but we have reason to believe that over time, the market will gradually regain its vitality. Among the RWA-related projects, centrifuge may be the most eye-catching. Goldfinch and Maple are also worth exploring in depth. Especially for protocols like centrifuge, although its market value has grown significantly, its market value is still relatively low compared with Goldfinch and Maple.
These are all protocols worth paying attention to in the RWA space, and they are also the top three projects I specifically listed in the panel. In the RWA market, there is another key factor that cannot be ignored, and that is the base currency USDC. The backer behind USDC is Blackrock, which has teamed up with JPMorgan Chase to jointly control the RWA asset tokenization market and use Circle's USDC as the base currency. Coinbase Exchange, as a partner of Blackrock's spot ETF, works closely with Circle. JPMorgan Chase is also a key player in the RWA market, so when observing market trends, special attention should be paid to the movements of Blackrock, Circle, USDC, and Combase, and their actual actions should be observed instead of just listening to their words.
Large institutions such as Vanguard and Merrill Lynch do not support the trading of Bitcoin spot ETFs, and Vanguard has even explicitly banned this transaction. However, customers and retail investors have expressed strong concerns and doubts about this.
They frequently asked why they could not make these transactions and threatened to withdraw funds or cancel their accounts. In their view, if they could not trade the Bitcoin spot ETF, they might turn to other platforms. At the same time, the senior managers of these accounts began to feel anxious. They were disappointed with the management's decision and had apologized to their customers.
This series of events shows that Wall Street's attitude towards Bitcoin spot ETFs is changing significantly. Although two large companies, Merrill Lynch and Vanguard, are still blocking the trading of Bitcoin spot ETFs, many other institutions have already started trading clients. The protests of these two institutions are gradually forming a force that affects the future of ETFs. Wall Street is under such pressure and may be forced to change its position in the future. As Blackrock's CEO said, Bitcoin is seen as a technological revolution in the financial field, which is in sharp contrast to his views in 2017.
The market has undergone a dramatic shift from 2017 to 2024, and this trend will continue to occur on Wall Street, with lasting impacts on investors. The recent weakness in Bitcoin prices is partly due to the problems with GBTC and the activities of Bitcoin miners.
Miners have been selling a large amount of Bitcoin during 2023 and 2024, but the spot ETF was not approved at that time. Now these released supplies may become an important factor affecting the future market.
The selling pressure from miners may become more obvious. After the halving, the number of bitcoins miners receive will be reduced by half, which will have an important impact on the supply and demand relationship in the Bitcoin market. Demand continues to grow, and supply will decrease in April 2024. This is an important change that the market must pay attention to.
At the same time, some large mining companies are buying new mining machines, which is good for the Bitcoin network. Although there may be a large-scale selling pressure in the short term that will cause the price of Bitcoin to fall, this may not be a positive trend in the long run. Some institutions, including Merrill Lynch and Vanguard, are also paying attention to the Bitcoin market, and they may eventually change their positions. Just like the CEO of Blackrock, who was skeptical about Bitcoin a few years ago and believed that Bitcoin was a pure money laundering tool, he now takes the lead in applying for a spot ETF and fully invests in the Bitcoin market.
Since 2017, the market's view on Bitcoin has undergone a fundamental shift, and Wall Street is experiencing this shift. Social media is no longer all about Bitcoin's rise, but more about its downward direction. I noticed some important support lines, such as the price range of $40,000 to $43,000 a bag, and the price of $37,000 a bag. I think the possibility of breaking these price ranges is less, especially the price of $36,000 a bag, which is the realized price line for short-term holders. Recently, Bei also released a report, and they prompted the market in many ways, especially LST 5.
In addition, they also mentioned the real world asset RWA. This is as eye-catching as the BN report I mentioned. Financial heavyweights such as Blackrock CEO Larry Fink are also paying attention to the Bitcoin market.
In general, the future of the Bitcoin market is full of uncertainty, but also full of opportunities. A revolutionary progress is taking place in the field of asset management, and we are not the only ones discussing RWA. Financial institutions such as Modus on Wall Street are also paying attention to the potential of the emerging market of asset tokenization. When it comes to the political situation in the United States, the upcoming US presidential election in November 2024, historical data shows that asset markets usually perform poorly in the first quarter of the election year, which is an important observation point. Because the performance of the market during this period may affect investors to reconsider their investment strategies. Although this may be a challenging period, it should not be ignored by us.
Keep in mind that the U.S. presidential election in November 2024 will be a critical moment. Based on historical data, the second, third, and fourth quarters of election years typically perform better.
