There was no Bitcoin spot ETF trading over the weekend, but the market continued its downward trend. Bitcoin fell below 42,000 points again this morning. Many friends were wondering why the approval of the spot ETF was a good thing, but it plummeted after it was listed for trading. Especially on Friday, Bitcoin fell all the way from a price close to 46,000 to a low of 41,500. This is not a good thing at all, it is clearly a panic sell-off.

In fact, I have reminded everyone before about this. Wall Street has gone through so much trouble to launch ETFs not for everyone to take over. What they want to do is to wash you out by all means, and then do the operation of pulling the market, so now is the process of washing. In addition, the selling pressure formed by the large amount of BTC held by Grayscale is also a part. It is said that Grayscale has flowed out of 1.7 billion US dollars of BTC in the past few days, which also means that the same amount of BTC has been exchanged for cash. This is why even big guys like BlackRock can't beat Grayscale in terms of trading volume in the past few days. The current situation is that many Grayscale customers are fleeing to other ETFs with lower fees. Although theoretically selling GBTC to buy another spot ETF will not affect the price, it is inevitable that there will be stampedes in the process, and some people simply take profits and flee without buying other ETFs. These reasons will also cause the price of the currency to be damaged; In addition, another negative event recently occurred, which was the selling of FTX. During this period, FTX also took advantage of the ETF to sell a large number of encrypted assets, which is also one of the reasons for the continuous decline in the price of the currency.

In addition, several Wall Street giants jointly boycotted Bitcoin spot ETFs on Friday, which also caused a certain negative sentiment in the market. These companies included Vanguard Group, another US national asset management giant second only to BlackRock. A spokesperson for Vanguard Group stated that in addition to being unable to purchase spot Bitcoin ETFs on the Vanguard platform, Vanguard will no longer accept purchases of cryptocurrency products including Bitcoin futures ETFs.

This statement means that they don't want to touch BTC and will close the product first. In addition to this company, there are three other Fortune 500 companies including Merrill Lynch, Edward Jones and Northwestern Mutual. It seems that even though BlackRock has taken the lead in supporting it, many Wall Street institutions are still very unfriendly to cryptocurrencies. Although the market has suffered a short-term setback, the long-term trend is still positive. Many analysts also believe that the oversupply caused by this sell-off will be resolved within 6-8 days, explaining that the currency market will stabilize. Moreover, BlackRock is still very confident. The CEO of BlackRock said that the Bitcoin ETF is only the first step in the technological revolution of the financial market. The next step is the tokenization of financial assets, and it is valuable to launch an ETH ETF. Here we can understand that if the Bitcoin ETF only brings encryption to the traditional financial world, then the tokenization of financial assets means that tens of trillions of traditional assets are introduced into the encryption market. This has a huge positive impact on the market, especially for RWA, DeFi, Oracle, lending and other fields. At the same time, some public chains that can provide enterprise-level services will also be beneficial. There is too much room for imagination.

Although the market trend was average over the weekend, the altcoins performed very strongly and basically did not follow the market. If it was before the ETF was passed, Bitcoin would have fallen from 49,000 to 41,000, and the altcoins would have been cut in half. The strong ones over the weekend were mainly the newly listed ones on Binance, especially xai, which rose all the way from Friday's low of 0.53 to nearly 1 dollar, and the increase was nearly doubled. Many friends were joking that Binance's dog house finally had a young model back, or that Binance was preparing for the next IEO. In any case, this wave of xai's strong rebound has restored some face for Binance. However, having said that, it is still not recommended to chase high prices for xai. It's not that this project is not good. This project must be very good after all, it is ARB's own son, and it is also the first L3 concept coin, but the FDV is too high. More than 2 billion is more or less an overdraft of future development.

Another project that has performed well is tia. This project has never weakened since its launch, and has been reaching new highs all the way. Now there is a feeling that the modularity represented by tia is the ultimate form of blockchain. Even though tia's performance is not as strong as many single chains now, tia can do everything that ETH can do after the Cancun upgrade in advance, and tia's customized da service can provide scalability for all blockchains. In this way, tia can be called the most innovative project in this round of public chain track. Even today, various people are saying that the reason why ETH is so anxious to upgrade to Cancun is that it is afraid that its own L2 project will fall into the arms of tia and choose tia as its DA layer. From this perspective, tia is already the Ethereum killer that is closest to success, but tia's market value is more than ten times lower than ETH, not to mention sol. This is why tia has such a large imagination space.

Market Analysis

BTC: Bitcoin has fallen from a high of 48,900 to a low of around 41,500, a retracement of nearly 15%. This is a sharp retracement caused by the cashing out after the launch of the ETF. However, judging from the current market, there has not been a sustained panic, so the market can basically remain stable.

However, from the 4-hour level, it may take some time for self-repair and challenges in the short term, and it will not continue to lead the market up so quickly. Now the main force has shifted from Bitcoin to Ethereum, and the Ethereum ecosystem may continue to be popular for a while. The next position of Bitcoin near 41,700 is crucial. If this position cannot be maintained, it will continue to test downward in the short term, with strong support near 40,000.

ETH: Ethereum has been rising in the past week, and it is estimated that the general trend will remain the same in the next month. After all, ETH will be hyped about the Cancun upgrade and ETF, and Vitalik Buterin has been making a lot of noise recently. The market has even started to hype Vitalik Buterin’s meme. In addition, there will be a lot of financing in the primary market in the future, so everyone must hold on to the ETH in their hands.

ORDI: From the daily level, the MA30 moving average is supporting it, and the overall market is still bullish. From the 4-hour level, the three lines are crossing, and the price is oscillating in a range around 65-78. I personally guess that if Audi forms a head and shoulders top pattern, it has not reached 82 yet, so friends who are buying low don’t need to worry too much. If a head and shoulders top appears, it is recommended to get off at 82, which is safer. From the 1-hour level, the moving average and the price are crossing back and forth, and there may be a change in the market soon. Overall, it is recommended to buy low, around 71.

XRP: xrp daily line is currently consolidating at a low level. Looking at the 4-hour line, due to the cross of three lines, the direction of change is coming soon. Because there has not been much increase before, I think the strength of this rise may be good. It is recommended to hold it in the short term. This wave of increase will rise with BTC, so just wait patiently. The shape is oscillating. Looking at the 1-hour line, it has been trading sideways around 0.578. Due to the continuous shrinking of volume, it is estimated that it will soon pull up, and the height can be seen around 0.7.

In a bull market, choosing the right cryptocurrency is crucial. Here are some options with great potential and almost guaranteed profits:

BTC Ecosystem:

STX: As a star in the BTC ecosystem, STX has become a popular choice for investors due to its unique advantages and powerful infrastructure.

ETH Series:

ETH: As a leader in smart contracts and decentralized applications, ETH has always occupied a pivotal position in the cryptocurrency market.

GMX: This decentralized trading platform has attracted much attention for its innovation and efficiency.

LDO: As a popular ETH staking solution, LDO provides users with convenient staking services.

ETH Layer 2:

ARB, OP, METIS, IMX: These second-layer solutions enhance the overall performance of the ETH ecosystem by providing faster transaction speeds and lower fees.

Move Series:

SUI: As part of the Move language, SUI represents the latest advancement in blockchain technology, and its innovation and potential are highly valued by the market.

SOL Ecosystem:

RAY: In the SOL ecosystem, RAY has become a highly anticipated project with its advanced financial services and products.

Finally, there are still many things that are not written down, such as specific opportunities and specific decisions. These things are often not something that can be summarized in one article.

The new year has begun, and we are creating a high-quality circle, which mainly explains various basic industry knowledge of the currency circle, the rotation of hot sectors, the basic methods of identifying tops and bottoms, how to better grasp this bull market, and so on. If you are interested, you can contact me.