Recently, there have been more and more discussions about SSV. Yesterday, BTC was brought back immediately after being brought down, which once again aroused discussion in the community, and also triggered a discussion about the valuation of blockchain projects. At present, most projects are still When valuation is based on ecological status or track status, profit can be used as an auxiliary indicator.

1/Trying to judge the capital situation of the LSD sector by sorting out on-chain data and transaction volume data. The first project is SSV (data as of 03/02). The SSV token has increased about 5 times in the past two months. CEX holdings have increased from 33% to 39%, while DEX holdings have declined (possible withdrawal Liquidity selling SSV), Funds holdings dropped from 0.54% to less than 0.01%, which shows that some SSV holders have taken profits.

2/ At present, currency holdings are mainly concentrated in Binance, and the currency holdings of the top 5 Binance addresses exceed 35% of the total token supply. OKX has recently been launched, and the OKX address has also received a certain amount of transfers. However, the large investors holding more than 0.1% of the currency have basically been buying in the past 30 days. In the past 7 days, most of the addresses have not held the currency. The large investors on the chain have not yet conducted large-scale selling.

3/ According to the compiled SSV partner token sales plan address shipments, the total purchase volume is 859,600, and the current sales/transfer volume is 361,600, accounting for 42.07% of the total purchase volume. The main selling institution is http:/ /stakewith.us, Amber Group, Lead Capital, NGC, etc., the cost is mainly concentrated at $6.19. (It is different from the aforementioned Funds holdings, which may be due to different statistical caliber/method.)

4/ SSV Treasury transferred a total of approximately 1.51 million SSV in September 2021, accounting for 13.66% of the total token supply. In the past year and a half, Treasury has transferred/sold a total of 1.141 million coins, leaving 371,000 coins. In the past six months, only 101,000 coins were transferred/sold.

5/Compared with the small transfers in previous months, the transfer/sale volume of SSV Treasury in February was relatively high. The largest transaction transferred 48,000 SSVs, which were successively transferred through Binance, Uniswap and other transactions. After selling, there are currently about 6,000 SSVs left at this address.

5/According to Coingecko’s trading volume data, daily trading volume exceeding 10% of the market value frequently occurs after January 31. It may currently be in the second exchange range, with the price in the $37-45 range. The first change of hands occurred on February 10-11, with the price ranging from $28-35.

6/ Judging from the current market price and rebound situation (low point $36.43, rebounded to $41.50 as of 00:01 pm, rebound rate +13.9%), market funds still favor SSV very much.

Recently, there have been more and more discussions about the valuation of $SSV, which has also triggered discussions on what indicators blockchain projects should be valued on. At present, most projects are still based on ecological status or track status. For valuation, profit can be used as an auxiliary indicator. After referring to the market values ​​of 5 well-known tokens, I personally believe that the reasonable market value of SSV is at least around US$2 billion.

Let’s look at SSV again. First of all, DVT technology is written into the Ethereum roadmap and is also a research outsourced by the Ethereum Foundation. It is crucial to the decentralization and security of Ethereum pledges.

In this track, SSV is currently the leader, both in terms of the progress of the test network and the token level.

Assume that after the Shanghai upgrade is completed, 20 million ETH are pledged, and 10% of the ETH pledged using SSV technology (platform) is 2 million ETH.

Of course, if income is included, these 2 million ETH will earn an annualized rate of return of 4% per year, and the Ethereum price will be calculated at US$2,000, resulting in an annual US$160 million income.

Of the US$160 million in revenue, most of the revenue will be distributed to the LSD protocol and the pledge node service provider. This proportion may account for 90%. In this case, SSV's revenue may only be about US$16 million.

Of course, here are a few indicators that I personally think are relatively conservative:

The first point is the pledge number of Ethereum, which is currently about 17 million. The 20 million I chose for calculation is definitely conservative. In the period after the Shanghai upgrade, I was not surprised that the amount of Ethereum pledged increased to 40 million.

The second point is the price of Ethereum, which I calculated based on $2,000. After Ethereum was converted to POS, it has become a deflationary asset that can generate income. After the price enters a positive cycle, it will definitely exceed US$2,000.

The third point is the ETH share pledged through SSV technology (or platform). There is reason to believe that after Ethereum is converted to POS, the adoption rate of DVT technology will gradually increase. Lido is already cooperating with SSV for testing, and centralized exchanges will actually integrate it to some extent for the sake of credibility and asset security. DVT technology.

In other words, DVT actually plays the role of a mining pool in the POW era. Whether it is individual mining or large-scale mining, it needs to be connected to the mining pool to produce a safe, stable, and high-yield output. Because for most people, the threshold for POS staking is higher than the previous threshold for graphics card mining. Apart from the requirements for the number of Ethereums, the cost of node operation and maintenance, the time, energy and technical reserves required, most people and companies All of them are not available and need to be left to DVT. If SSV goes well, it will be like the leaders of other tracks, winner-take-all, and capture the largest market share. By the end, the percentage of ETH staked via SSV may increase to 30% or even 50% of the total amount pledged. And if the ETH pledged through the SSV protocol can be counted into the TVL of SSV, then SSV may become the protocol with the highest TVL in history.

Therefore, if the previous income of US$16 million is calculated based on the price of 40 million ETH + US$4,000 + SSV 20% share, it will become an income of US$120 million.

Currently, SSV has a circulating market value of US$300 million and a fully diluted market value of US$500 million. Combining the valuations of the previous five projects: BTC (USD 450 billion), DOGE (USD 11.3 billion), UNI (USD 4.9 billion), LINK (USD 3.5 billion), LDO (USD 2.7 billion) and valuation methods, what do you think What is a reasonable valuation for the SSV protocol?

I personally believe that even if the valuation is based on an income of US$1,600, the circulating market value of SSV may reach about US$2 billion. Of course, this is just speculation, and everything else can only be left to the market and time. (The main content is reproduced from the Twitter boss Thor, follow my good brother for more content)