The bank anticipates Bitcoin ETFs attracting inflows akin to the initial gold ETF, but with a swifter momentum.
As anticipation builds in the financial realm regarding the approval of Bitcoin spot ETF applications, Standard Chartered Bank boldly projected on Monday that Bitcoin's value would surpass $200,000 by the conclusion of 2025. In a communication to investors, Geoffrey Kendrick, the head of financial research at Standard Chartered Bank, asserted that reaching a level near $200,000 by the end of 2025 is conceivable, particularly if anticipated ETF-related inflows materialize as expected.
Bitcoin ETFs, mirroring the current Bitcoin price, offer investors exposure to the cryptocurrency's market fluctuations without requiring them to acquire and safeguard the digital asset itself. These ETFs are overseen by investment firms responsible for holding the Bitcoin. Notably, a lineup of reputable financial entities including BlackRock, Grayscale, Ark, iShares, Bitwise, VanEck, Wisdomtree, Invesco, Fidelity, and Franklin currently have ETFs in the final stages of the approval process.
Kendrick emphasized that the 2025 forecast aligns with their earlier projections of $100,000 by the close of 2024. Underscoring the pivotal role of ETF approval, Kendrick stated, “ETF approval is a catalyst for BTC price appreciation. We view this as a pivotal moment for institutional involvement in Bitcoin, anticipating significant capital inflows and upward price momentum for BTC upon approval.”
In alignment with Kendrick's outlook, Bloomberg's senior ETF analyst, Eric Balchunas, shared a perspective on Thursday, suggesting that a Bitcoin ETF could potentially amass $100 million within a decade. Expressing a degree of optimism, Balchunas remarked that a few billion would mark a robust initial year for any category, but he leaned towards a more positive estimate, possibly around $10 billion in the first year.
Elaborating on the short-term unpredictability, Balchunas noted, "It's the short-term that is hard to predict here. In the medium term, we do see this, maybe in the ballpark of [$30 billion] to [$50 billion] over three years." He added, "And then maybe it settles to where gold is at about $100 billion over five to ten years."
Adding a touch of speculation, Balchunas, on Saturday, assigned a high probability of 95% for the approval of a Bitcoin ETF by the SEC in January, as indicated in a Twitter post. However, he acknowledged the need to maintain a slight contingency, stating, "I probably go with 5% at this point. But you gotta leave a little window open for these things."
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