The current price of Bitcoin makes the bulls feel a little uncomfortable and the bears a little nervous. In fact, it is still caused by not getting out of the dispute zone. Since the price fell from the top of the highest point of 25250 on the 21st, the bulls have not recovered the lost ground. Before 11 o'clock yesterday morning, the daily line floated a medium-sized Yang line, which seemed to break the downward situation and rushed to the short-selling defense zone. Soon, the continuous selling pressure finally ended with a small Yang K. The price hit the first protection position of the bulls near 23800 and stagnated. The upper shadow line was long, covering the previous day's falling pattern. The current price is still in the shipment shock period after the big Yang line on the 16th. The bottom boundary of 23500 is still playing a supporting role, which means that if this position can be guarded well, then the top boundary of 25000 may have a chance to see. If the guard fails, the next larger support will come again to the sideways position of 21800 before the big pull-up in mid-February. As mentioned in the previous article of Xunzhang, since the daily line has been oscillating and selling recently, it is really difficult to judge which time will break this balance and no longer rebound. Therefore, we need to be more patient and wait to get out of the dispute area and avoid hard participation.
Regarding the market trend, Xun Zhang believes that the more the market falls, the more obvious the long and short trends will be. First of all, if the market can still rise strongly after falling to 23,300, it means that the dealer still has a plan to protect the market and pull it up. Short sellers need to be more cautious and further reduce their positions to participate in the market. If it continues to pass the dividing point of 25,300, it means that the current decline is just a short rest, and there will be more gains in the future market worth looking forward to. However, before passing the dividing point, Xun Zhang recommends that you still judge by the top pattern and short against 25,300.
In fact, to completely dispel the market's bullish view, the daily line pattern needs to fall below the 21,100-point large cycle track guide line of MA60. Because in the early stages of a bull market, prices are eager to climb and will not be adjusted below MA60. Usually, they will start the next round of upward movement when they are close to MA30. Only when they reach the top of the bull market will they have the opportunity to fall below MA60, indicating that the bull market has peaked. If it falls below this position just after the start, it means that this start is a false behavior and a bear market retracement. Therefore, the position of 21,000 is particularly critical, which can double the confidence of short sellers and extinguish the flames of long sellers.
At present, in the four-hour cycle, the K-line has fallen below all MAs, leaving only MA60 in an upward tilt. The price is still competing for the bottom support of 23800. The hourly line is on a downward track, and the MA60 suppression of the K-line is currently at 24050 points. For those who like to do short-term trading, it is recommended to wait and see further. The disputed area of the short-term direction does not increase the winning rate, and should not enter the market. After waiting, you can continue to deal with short orders above 24700 in a high-altitude way. It is recommended to wait for long orders near 22800 for rebound below. At present, since the intraday price is stuck in the first defense zone of the bulls, it is difficult to judge the direction and dynamics of the short-term, and there is a lack of good participation opportunities. For those who like to take risks and do small short-term trading, since there are data showing that large households have large orders waiting in the 23300-23600 range, small positions and small stop losses can be used to deal with it as follows.
It is recommended to enter the BTC short-term short position at 24250-24400, with a stop loss at 24600 (the peak point of the rebound phase yesterday morning), and a short-term take profit at 23900 and 23800.
For BTC short-term long orders, it is recommended to enter long orders at 23400-23550, with a stop loss at 23200, and short-term take profit at 23900 and 24000.
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