As anticipation builds within the cryptocurrency community for the United States Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) forthcoming decision regarding spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications, a unique form of speculation has emerged.
Traders are seizing this moment of suspense to wager on the approval outcome by January 15.
On the decentralized gambling platform Polymarket, which operates on the Polygon blockchain, traders are placing their bets with a simple “Yes” or “No” on whether the Bitcoin ETF applications will receive approval.
Presently, approximately $1.5 million worth of bets have been staked, and the majority of traders are favoring the “Yes” outcome.
The value of each share on Polymarket represents the odds of the respective approval or rejection, mirroring the volatility of the crypto market.
At the time of writing, a “Yes” share costs $0.79, while a “No” share is priced at $0.21.
An anonymous top holder known as “kiwi” has invested around $421,000 in “Yes” shares, while the leading holder for “No” holds only about $15,000 in “No” shares.
Polymarket has set the resolution date for January 15, 2024, at 11:59:59 pm Eastern Time, stating that the market will resolve as “Yes” if any spot Bitcoin ETF gains SEC approval by that deadline; otherwise, it will resolve as “No.”
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This implies that holders of either bet will experience either gains or losses based on the outcome by the stipulated deadline.
The platform asserts that the primary source for market resolution will be information directly from the SEC.
However, it also mentions the possibility of using a consensus of credible reporting sources to determine the market outcome.
While some members of the cryptocurrency community have criticized this betting activity, others have adopted a more humorous approach.
In a Cryptocurrency subreddit, one user referred to the bets as “putting up dollars to win dimes,” characterizing them as somewhat irrational.
Conversely, another community member humorously claimed they were about to lose their child’s college fund, while yet another apologized to their “crypto grandkids” for their impending actions.
As the crypto world watches and waits for the SEC’s decision, Polymarket’s speculative market serves as a unique reflection of the crypto community’s sentiment and willingness to take risks on significant developments in the space.
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