The following contents are all from my WeChat group chat, please bear with me.

1. Calculate the cost.

The cost of buying points off-site is about 0.2. The cost of the studio is not low. Both labor and time are costs, but it is difficult to quantify. Some god-level studios achieve "0 profit" through front-running transactions, but they are extremely rare after all, and such low costs must take into account the turnover volume in the last few consecutive days.

You can take a look at OKX's turnover. I tried it at night and placed a buy order of 200,000 U at around 0.9. In less than 10 seconds, it was all gone! With such a large turnover and so many exchanges, it is not too much to estimate the market average cost at 0.5.

2. Calculate expectations

BLUR's current daily transaction volume is three times that of OS. Friends who are not familiar with this track will think it is some kind of inflated volume, a studio, etc.

However, as someone who has studied LOOK and X2Y2, experienced the Ponzi scheme of transaction mining, and joined the element team, I can say that no one understands transaction mining better than me, and why BLUR is something completely different.

The logic of mining is: users obtain coins through transactions or pledges and receive dividends.

The truth behind this is: project owners and studios obtain the most coins through transactions and large-scale staking, and they will calculate the cost of transaction mining. As long as it is lower than the GAS fee, they will keep selling it no matter how much they earn, to achieve daily net profit, and all secondary retail investors will be trapped!

Therefore, the performance of transaction mining is: there are people trading on the platform, there are people, and there is transaction volume. For example, X2Y2 and LOOKS have claimed that their transaction volume exceeds OS

But it's useless, it's just a Ponzi scheme, and it targets retail investors who expect dividends. I got stuck with X2Y2 before because they were not a Ponzi scheme at the beginning, but later became like this.

The logic of BLUR is:

Market makers are studios that use their time and money to BID, provide liquidity to the market, and are rewarded with tokens.

Players get better depth in BLUR than in OS. In the words of a big player: "Oh my god, playing NFT is as smooth as trading coins, you can buy and sell at will."

The exchange has achieved tremendous development. Currently, the 24-hour trading volume has exceeded OS

3. Token selling pressure

When the average market cost is already high, then we have to look at future selling pressure. Previously, there was an analysis chart circulated online by a friend. There was an error in the key points of the analysis, as he said the annual release was daily release.

Next, how to deal with the selling pressure of tokens? At present, 360 million tokens have been released in the first round. Next, 1 billion in 2023, about 1.7B by the end of 2024, 2.5B by the end of 2025, 2.8 by the end of 2026, and 3B in 2027.

Therefore, the selling pressure in the first year is not small, but if you look closely, the team, investors, and consultants all have an unlocking period of 4 to 5 years (the unlocking and release is also similar to the linear release of community tokens)

To put it simply, if you understand it, the total amount will be close to that of X2Y2 and LOOKS in about a year, while the current market value is only 330 million, similar to LOOKS - in my eyes, LOOKS is a Ponzi scheme and is not worthy of being mentioned at all.

The reason why LOOKS can support a market value of hundreds of millions is mainly because of its good communication. Many people overseas, including the BAYC community, know LOOKS, but that does not affect the fact that it is garbage.

X2Y2 is actually better than LOOKS because it has no spread, but the price difference is too big. This also shows that there is no price without spread, but on the other hand, blur has spread, the price of the coin has risen, airdrops, OS challengers, this is easy to judge.

Next, you can also pay attention to the increase in followers of the official account. On February 17, the number of followers increased by 16,000.

4. Anticipation

Currently, the studio is rolling up the BID and pending orders lines, and the rules for releasing points have not been determined. In any case, by the time the next round of airdrops is about to be issued, the price will have been hyped up. Now the trading volume and sentiment of blue chips have rebounded. There are still several rounds of legal games on the monkey side. Every new move is constantly refreshing the market's heat. As a leading platform, BLUR will benefit from the entire market.

List on Binance

The market maker will suddenly pull up the market at some point.

The possibility of further external financing, etc.

5. Security.

Assuming BLUR can become the leader, what should its valuation be? Referring to the garbage air project that was heavily promoted in China in the last round of DOT, the highest market value was more than 60 billion. As a project with actual revenue and high popularity, BLUR is not too much at 50 billion. But in fact, it depends on the circulation, which is much smaller. Even if it is discounted by 20%, 10 billion, and now it is 0.95, it may only be temporarily trapped.

Anything with a 100% stable profit would be fine, let alone such huge profits.

6.If OS issues coins, there will be no BLUR?

First of all, I admit that the advantage of OS is that if OS were to issue coins and do airdrops like this, it would definitely be a sensation and everyone, including me, would go.

And its coin issuance is more attractive than BLUR. And it will greatly improve the liquidity problem I mentioned in my tweet today. OK, now it’s time to do it. If you are a project owner, you need to consider the team, investors, and product design. Think carefully about how you would design these three aspects.

Group member: If I were OS, when it comes to life and death, investors have to make concessions, not to mention others. Changing the royalty policy is enough to illustrate this point.

First of all, as for the team, we have a lot of money anyway. You have the final say on how to do it, no problem.

Secondly, investors used to take away hundreds of millions of yuan every year. Now, in order to do BLUR, they have to pool all their resources to start a war. How much of the token distribution (equity distribution) will you give to the community? 60% like BLUR? Yes, you have to find a way to convince investors to take a long-term view. The next step is to convince investors to accept dividends, etc. OK, assuming that all the work is done - but I don't think it is easy to do it. When there are too many people, there will be mixed opinions.

Finally, product design. 1. If you want to compete with barefoot brands like BLUR, you must first reduce costs, keep royalties and other things consistent, and reduce revenue significantly.

2. At the same time, in order to be consistent with BLUR in terms of liquidity, you must start to aggregate, rather than the current model. So you need to mobilize the GEM team to abandon the current product and directly copy BLUR and integrate it into the OS. It cost a lot of money to acquire GEM. Either give up or start over - I am working on the project, I know how difficult it is.

Suppose you use 3-6 months to make a product as good as BLUR (assuming BLUR does not iterate), OS will lose its own style (current OS) and do the same thing as BLUR. What is risk? For example, your bid on BLUR is all based on batch considerations. Now the interface of OS has been changed, but it is not enough.

There are many things to consider, and any bug in the product can be fatal.

3. Even if OS makes concessions, issues tokens, and provides the same depth as BLUR half a year later, so what? For us, the important thing is not whether BLUR can become the first, but whether BLUR's circulating market value and valuation are cost-effective at the current position of 300 million US dollars, and how much room is there?

So, if we think about it from the perspective of how we can make money from this, it will become clear. Who is stronger or weaker between the two is actually the same to us. What we care about is how to make money from it.

Therefore, it is impossible to change the OS itself, and the project owner also needs to evaluate and risk everything to fight against BLUR and change their own advantages. This will never happen.

As for the changes based on GEM? By the time the product is ready, BLUR has already changed.

The key is that for us, we only need to care about whether BLUR is worth investing in now.

One more thing

Now the off-site studios are brushing the second round of points. It seems that there are only 100 million tokens in the second round, but they are divided into several categories, including listing rewards and bidding rewards.

This can actually be understood as the “cost” of the second round:

The amount of airdrops has been reduced to only 1/3

The types of distribution have been increased, including bidding and listing.

The number of recipients increased.

So how much is the second round of airdrops worth?

The second round will be reduced by 1/3, and the number of people may double or more. Blur also charges 0.5% of the royalties, which has actually changed.

It is estimated that there will be new incentives, such as the VE model, which will be used to attract project parties later.

The project owners are required to buy coins to lock up and increase liquidity for their projects. Moreover, they will compete with each other, because users will ask, "Look, other projects have locked up their coins, why don't you?"

And this money has to be paid by the project party itself.

Even the likes of AZUKI have to sweep the floor to protect the market, but now it is more efficient to lock the BLUR.

7. How to view the economic model?

Now we see that BLUR is actually the strongest builder in the industry and the strongest economic model designer.

Adjustments made after experiencing the drawbacks of UNI, DYDX, etc.

Because the major improvement direction of DYDX's V4 version (team concessions, DAO determines token rights and interests, etc.) is a signal, but it has not been launched yet due to technical reasons.

BLUR is the implementer of this concept.

From here we can see that this is the first of PARADIGM’s top investment projects to transfer the power of protocol value distribution to the community.

It is not a good idea to give in to uni, because if you do, you may lose your advantage.

DYDX is making it so that version V4 is expected to be launched in the second half of 2023. The official has announced that the fees will no longer flow to the team, but to the DAO, which will be decided by users voting. This is what is done in the BLUR token model today.

Yesterday I talked with one of the largest studios in the industry and decided to increase my position. The studio said that there are not many people holding the low-level chips of 0.6 in the market. Yesterday, the studio boss told me that I should cherish the large positions below 0.5, because few people have them now.

NFTAerfa: I saw that Brother Yu had a heavy position today. Some friends around me bought in at 0.6 on the day of the coin issuance, but their positions were not enough. And building a position on the day of the coin issuance should be more of a gamble. The data of the trading market in the past few days has come out, and it is more stable to build a position now than on that day.

The difficulty for OS is that its next round of private placement is likely to face a downround, with a valuation that will be discounted from the 13 billion in January last year. VC investors hate this the most.

I actually know about Fa Ge. He has been researching this track since March and April last year, and he is more optimistic about Magic Eden. However, due to the problems of the chain, the current prospects are bleak. But because of those backgrounds, Fa Ge, as a professional NFT player, has a better sense of what is a good NFT - especially after tracking the track for so long.

Today, BLUR is powerful enough to compete with OS, and the market landscape is being rewritten: but the question most retail investors are still asking is?

What liquidity solution? How many people are using BLUR? I suspect it is a fake. Will it be gone after the airdrop? Ponzi model, LOOKS X2Y2 are all like this, what's so great about it?

These cognitive differences are actually differences. When everyone realizes that, damn, this is a really good platform, it no longer matters.