I witnessed #BTC🔥🔥 A significant rise in 2023, with the digital currency rising by about 152% during the year. While a number of experts CNBC spoke with - inside and outside the cryptocurrency industry - expect the rise to continue.
After reaching a record high in 2021, Bitcoin had a difficult year in 2022, marked by the collapse of high-profile projects, liquidity problems, and bankruptcies.
That year, FTX, once one of the world's largest cryptocurrency exchanges, declared bankruptcy. In 2023, its founder, Sam Bankman-Fried, was convicted of all seven criminal charges brought against him by federal prosecutors in the United States.
Also in 2023, Changpeng Zhao of Binance pleaded guilty to criminal charges and resigned as CEO of the company as part of a $4.3 billion settlement with the Department of Justice.
Now that these two high-profile cases are over, and with enthusiasm returning to cryptocurrency markets, industry executives expect a new bull run to begin, based primarily on two things – the Bitcoin halving and the potential approval of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund in the US.
Halving, which occurs every four years, is when the rewards miners receive for mining Bitcoin are cut in half. This maintains the maximum supply of Bitcoin, of which there will only ever be 21 million. In previous halvings, the price of Bitcoin rises.
Meanwhile, there is growing excitement that the US Securities and Exchange Commission will approve the first bitcoin ETF, after years of opposition. This means that investors can purchase a product that tracks the price of Bitcoin, without having to go to an exchange and hold the digital currency directly. The industry hopes this will attract a wider range of investors, in particular, large institutional investors.
With all this excitement comes some bold predictions about the price of Bitcoin. Here is a selection of some of them.
Mark Mobius: $60,000
In 2022, Mark Mobius correctly predicted that Bitcoin would fall to $20,000 when it was trading above $28,000. He had a set price of $10,000 after that, which he stuck to in 2023. However, that did not materialize, with Bitcoin rising.
As for 2024, Mobius told CNBC that Bitcoin could reach $60,000 by the end of the year.
“There is no logical reason for this prediction,” Mobius explained, except that a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund appears likely and “this has led to increased interest” in the cryptocurrency.
Mining House: $75,000
Yuwei Yang, chief economist at cryptocurrency mining company Bit Mining, believes that Bitcoin could reach a high of $75,000 by 2024.
Yang attributes the expected price rise to the approval of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund, leading to increased institutional investment in Bitcoin, as well as the halving of the price of Bitcoin in May 2024, which could restrict Bitcoin supply.
“I expect bitcoin to trade at around $25,000 to $75,000 in 2024, and $45,000 to $130,000 in 2025,” Yang said in an email note.
Queen Shares: $80,000
James Butterville, head of research at CoinShares, said the digital assets landscape is set for a “big change” in 2024, driven by the potential approval of bitcoin ETFs in the US.
“This long-awaited development is poised to expand the investor base in cryptocurrencies and integrate them more closely with traditional financial markets,” Butterville told CNBC via email.
“It is estimated that a 20% increase in investment from current assets under management (about US$3 billion) could push Bitcoin prices to US$80,000.”
Meanwhile, Butterville added that the scenario of central banks cutting interest rates could “also play a crucial role” in pushing up the price of Bitcoin.
“While the halving is a well-known event, other elements, especially the potential for interest rate cuts, are likely to be important in shaping Bitcoin’s price going forward,” Butterville said.
Nexo: $100,000
Anthony Trenchev, co-founder of Nexo, a cryptocurrency exchange, believes that bitcoin could reach $100,000 in 2024.
In 2022, he expected Bitcoin to reach $100,000, but that did not happen. Instead, the price of Bitcoin collapsed that year. He declined to make any further price predictions.
But in a note in December, Trenchev predicted Bitcoin would reach $100,000 for 2024, citing halvings and the potential approval of several Bitcoin ETFs.
Standard Chartered: $100,000
In November, Standard Chartered Bank doubled its forecast for Bitcoin to $100,000 in April. This will be driven by the approval of several ETFs, the bank said.
The bank said the halving would also be supportive of Bitcoin.
Carol Alexander: $100,000
In 2022, Carol Alexander, a finance professor at the University of Sussex, had great success in determining the future price of Bitcoin.
She predicted that Bitcoin would fall to $10,000 in 2022. That year, Bitcoin fell to about $15,480. For 2023, Alexander said Bitcoin will rise to $50,000. Bitcoin reached a yearly high of nearly $44,700 in early December.
During the first quarter of 2024, Bitcoin will trade in a range between $40,000 to $55,000, due to “professional traders creating volatility,” Alexander told CNBC.
The next phase will depend on when the SEC settles charges against Coinbase and Binance, which may be required before a bitcoin fund is approved, according to Alexander. The SEC filed a lawsuit against Coinbase and Binance in 2023.
Alexander said the settlement of these issues will likely be in the second or third quarter, after which the ETFs will be approved and the price of bitcoin will rise to $70,000, a new all-time high.
“Before the end of 2024, the price could exceed $100,000,” Alexander concluded.
Matrixport: $125,000
Matrixport, which bills itself as a cryptocurrency-related financial services company, issued a note in November predicting that bitcoin would reach $63,140 by April 2024 and $125,000 by the end of next year.
“Based on our inflation model, the macro environment is expected to remain a strong tailwind for cryptocurrencies. Another decline in inflation is expected, prompting the Federal Reserve to initiate interest rate cuts,” Matrixport said in its report.
Many commentators see easing monetary policy as supporting Bitcoin, which is seen as a risky asset. Meanwhile, some see Bitcoin as a kind of “safe haven” asset to pour money into during times of geopolitical conflicts, although many disagree with this theory.
Coin Fund: up to $500,000
CoinFund has one of the highest price forecasts for Bitcoin for 2024. “Bitcoin has a strong inverse relationship with the dollar and real yields, and both are falling now,” Seth Janes, the company’s managing partner, told CNBC via email.
“We also expect inflows following the launch of Bitcoin ETFs, as well as growing excitement around the potential approval of ETFs in #ETH (ether) later in 2024, to make a lot of sense,” Jens added. "
Jeans said bitcoin could reach $1 million per coin “in this next cycle,” but said a “reasonable expectation” for 2024 would be between $250,000 and $500,000.
