In this article, we will explore Bitcoin market cycles to predict when the next cycle's tops and bottoms may occur, as well as their possible price levels.

Bitcoin Price Cycle Chart


Our analysis will cover several key concepts, including the four-year cycle theory, peak-to-peak and trough-to-trough analysis, cycle timing (peak to bottom), and the idea of diminishing returns to support our predictions.

Four-Year Cycle Theory
The Bitcoin four-year cycle theory refers to a cyclical market cycle that aligns with Bitcoin halving events, which occur approximately every four years. It suggests that Bitcoin's price moves in predictable cycles, primarily driven by supply and demand dynamics, with halving events serving as significant catalysts.

The theory indicates that each four-year cycle consists of four different phases:

  • a. Position Building (Bear Market Bottom)

  • b. Uptrend (Bull Market Begins)

  • c. Parabolic Rise (Bull Market Peak)

  • d. Correction (Bear Market Crash)



Bitcoin halving significantly reduces the mining speed of new bitcoins, leading to a decrease in supply. When supply decreases while demand remains constant or increases (due to adoption growth, media coverage, etc.), prices typically rise after halving, leading to phase c: parabolic rise.

With a basic understanding of the four-year cycle theory, we can now analyze the intervals between cycle peaks and troughs.

Interval Analysis
Cycle analysis aims to identify recurring patterns by analyzing the time and price changes between key events (such as market tops (peaks) and bottoms). In the case of Bitcoin, halving events may also be considered. By examining these cyclical behaviors, we attempt to predict future tops and bottoms.

The simplest and most easily understood pattern is:

  • Top to Top
    Time difference between consecutive market tops

  • From Top to Bottom
    Time difference between a market top and the next market bottom.

  • From Bottom to Top
    Time difference from the market bottom to the next market top.

  • Bottom to Bottom
    Time difference between consecutive market bottoms.


The predicted upcoming market cycle peak is as follows:

  • Based on the top-to-top pattern, the market peak is expected on November 3, 2025.

  • According to the bottom-to-bottom pattern, the expected high point will occur on October 13, 2025.

  • The halving event to peak pattern suggests that the market will reach its peak on October 6, 2025.

Predicting Cycle Peaks:

The upcoming market cycle peak is expected to occur in October or November 2025. Based on our analysis, we predict the price will be between $131,000 and $170,000.

The predicted upcoming market cycle bottom is as follows:

  • Based on the bottom-to-bottom pattern, the market bottom is expected on October 19, 2026.

  • According to the top-to-bottom pattern, the market bottom is expected on October 26, 2026.

  • Predicting Cycle Lows:
    The market cycle bottom will occur in October or November 2026. According to our analysis, we predict the price will be between $49,000 and $65,000.