Trump's political philosophy and behavioral patterns revolve around a core idea: the world is a zero-sum game. The one who pays the most is the loser; the one who gains the most is the winner. From this perspective, the essence of international relations is simplified to a life-and-death competition where any party's gain is necessarily at the expense of another's loss. This way of thinking not only subverts the basic logic of the post-war international order but also has profound impacts on global politics, economics, and security.
The conflict between zero-sum and positive-sum games.
Since the end of World War II, the mainstream idea in the international community has been positive-sum games. This idea holds that international cooperation can create common interests, and even if there are differences in the distribution of benefits, overall, win-win outcomes can still be achieved. The logic of positive-sum games has supported the construction of the international trade system, the framework of international law, and multilateral alliances, becoming the cornerstone of global prosperity and peace. The United States, as the primary designer and maintainer of this system, has long ensured its stable operation through its leadership.
However, Trump's foreign policy clearly deviates from this tradition. His words and actions indicate that he is more inclined to view international relations as a zero-sum game. In this way of thinking, any party's gain is seen as another party's loss, the value of international cooperation is weakened, and unilateralism and protectionism take its place. This shift not only undermines the foundations of the international order but also poses challenges to America's long-term alliances.
The impact on the international trade system.
The modern international trade system is built on the foundation of positive-sum games, with the core idea being that through specialized division of labor and free trade, countries can achieve mutual prosperity. Exporting countries gain markets, importing countries gain resources, and both sides benefit. However, Trump's trade policies completely subvert this logic. He views trade deficits as 'failures' and surpluses as 'victories,' and attempts to 'correct' this imbalance through high tariffs and trade barriers.
This zero-sum thinking not only harms America's trading partners but also has far-reaching effects on the global economy. The Trump administration imposed high tariffs on major trading partners such as Mexico, China, and Canada, and threatened similar actions against the EU. This approach not only failed to effectively reduce the trade deficit but also exacerbated global economic uncertainty. More seriously, America’s unilateral actions have weakened its credibility as a reliable trading partner and shaken the stability of global supply chains.
The weakening of the international law system.
Another pillar of the post-war international order is the rules-based international law system. The core of this system is that countries can achieve greater collective benefits by adhering to common rules and norms. For example, the norm against territorial conquest allows countries not to be constantly on guard against aggression, thereby reducing the risk of war. Although the enforcement mechanisms of international law are not perfect, its positive effects still provide important guarantees for global stability.
However, Trump's policies pose a direct challenge to this system. He openly questions the value of international law and even proposes extreme claims such as the annexation of Greenland and Gaza. More seriously, his stance on the Ukraine issue undermines the protection of territorial integrity by international law. Trump suggested allowing Russia to keep its invaded territories and excluding Ukraine from peace negotiations, which not only undermines the authority of international law but also sets a precedent for aggressive actions by other countries.
The crisis of the NATO alliance.
NATO, as an important component of the post-war international security system, is also based on the logic of positive-sum games. By jointly investing in deterrent forces, NATO member countries can avoid war and achieve greater security benefits. Although the United States spends far more on defense in NATO than other member countries, its leadership position and strategic interests are also well protected.
However, Trump's attitude towards NATO is filled with zero-sum thinking. He has repeatedly criticized allies for insufficient defense spending and even threatened to withdraw from NATO. More seriously, he has stated that he would 'encourage' Russia to 'do as it pleases' with NATO member countries that are underfunding their defense. Such remarks not only weaken NATO's deterrent power but also shake allies' trust in the United States. Trump's policies have exacerbated internal divisions within NATO, significantly increasing uncertainty in the global security landscape.
The erosion of democratic values.
Democratic institutions themselves can be seen as a positive-sum game. Only when political participants believe that adhering to the rules can bring greater benefits can democracy operate stably. Mature democratic countries achieve long-term stability and prosperity through peaceful power transitions and institutionalized competition mechanisms. However, Trump's actions challenge this logic.
He refused to accept the results of the 2020 election and expressed sympathy for the supporters of the January 6 Capitol riot. This behavior not only undermines the core principles of democratic institutions but also weakens America’s international image as a beacon of democracy. Trump's hostility towards liberal democratic countries and closeness to authoritarian regimes further highlights the erosion of democratic values by his zero-sum thinking.
The reconstruction of global order.
Trump's zero-sum thinking has not only changed American foreign policy but also has profound effects on the global order. The positive logic of the post-war international order has been replaced by zero-sum thinking, and the value of international cooperation has been undermined by unilateralism and protectionism. America's leadership and credibility have been severely damaged, and the uncertainty in global political, economic, and security patterns has significantly increased.
However, the zero-sum thinking model is not irreversible. The international community can still re-establish the logic of positive-sum games through multilateral cooperation and rule reconstruction. The key lies in whether countries can find new paths for cooperation and rebuild trust in the international order in the face of the impact of Trumpism.
The rise of Trumpism marks a new turning point in the global order. The zero-sum thinking model not only challenges the basic logic of the post-war international order but also brings new dilemmas for global governance. Against this backdrop, the international community needs to rethink the relationship between cooperation and competition and find new balance points to address future challenges.
This article was first published on Binance Square.
