The probability of a decrease in the US Federal Reserve's interest rate on March 19 is 3%. This was not a surprise, but the fact that after the publication of positive consumer inflation data, this figure dropped from 4% to 3% is interesting.

How to explain this? Perhaps the market interpreted the published data as a factor reducing the need for easing policy in the near term. But, let's say, it's not the most obvious conclusion.

Nevertheless, both the stock and crypto markets are currently declining. For #BTC, the morning low has been updated. pGиP will be restructuring. But so far, on the hourly timeframe, the price is in a stable uptrend - the idea of growth is intact. An alert has been set, we'll see.

Let us remind you that this data from #CMEGroup is not some kind of survey. The FedWatch Tool from CMEGroup analyzes futures on Fed rates to predict the probabilities of changes in the federal funds target rate at future Fed meetings. In other words, the forecasts are based on market expectations and contract prices on futures.

So far, the consensus expectation is a decrease no earlier than June 18.